First look 2010… AFC South

Two divisions left to go, both in the AFC. The West, but first let’s take a look at the South.  Things didn’t happen in quite the way they were predicted last season. Judging by the number of Colts and Titans shirts we saw at Wembley last year, UK NFL fans would love to see some of these teams in London soon. But they’ll probably just have to hope for serious post-season runs for now…

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts looked so good all through the post-season that it looked like they were heading for another Superbowl. As we know, and despite what we here at MacTalksNFL thought, it wasn’t to be the case.

Going into the second year under Jim Caldwell, there’s no way this team won’t make the post-season. That’s a given, and the front office in Indy shows a lot of the league how things should be done. They’ll need more of that as it comes to getting a new deal in place for Peyton Manning in an uncapped season. What he gets will reverberate across the league, but it’s hard to imagine it becoming a real distraction: A deal will get done.

They ranked only 19th in defense last year. They’ve resigned some core components of this unit – like Melvin Bullitt, Gary Brackett and Antoine Bethea and also spent their first three draft picks to do better on this side of the ball.

Like I said above – they’ll make the playoffs. It’s the easiest call we get to make.

Houston Texans

We all love the Texans and really want them to do well. Last year they got close (again) but they didn’t quite make it (again). The sting of not making the play-offs will have hurt, but this young team did record their first winning season, continuing a steady trend of careful building and development over the last few years.

Finishing second though, has meant their schedule looks trickier than it might have done – not that this team will fear anyone, and the number 1 passing offence in particular will feel then can beat anyone through the air. Despite what coach Kubiak says, they probably don’t want to pass all the time. Steve Slaton was a fumble-machine last season, eventually losing his spot to Ryan Moats (and costing my Fantasy League glory too!). Moats is now with the Vikings, so Slaton will hope to get more chances even if the team is well stocked at running back after getting Ben Tate in the draft. How well they can adjust to new OC Rick Dennison will be the story of the first few games.

They will certainly need to improve in-division too. Their 1-5 record ultimately cost them – as the 7th ranked team in the AFC just one additional win would have got them safely into a wildcard spot. With three of those divisional losses being by 5 points or less, these games were winnable.

The defence was decidedly mid-table, and whilst it can improve it’s probably more important that they don’t regress. Like I mentioned above, this is a likeable young team with some real studs… but with a harder schedule, I don’t see them getting to 9-7 again.

Tennessee Titans

Talk about a season of two halves. The Titans opened up 2009 with six consecutive losses, putting them well and truly on the back foot. Coming back after their bye week, Vince Young started and the team started to follow him. The remaining 10 games saw only two losses to end the season a respectable (considering) 8-8.

Chris Johnson was a hero out of the backfield, becoming only the 6th player to run for 2000 yards in a season and also breaking Marshall Faulk‘s yards from scrimmage record. Now he wants to be paid, and based on his form of the past two seasons it’s easy to see his case. Hopefully it’ll come together with him and the Titans before any hold out affects his play this year.

Knowing it was an area that needed help, the Titans spent 6 of their 9 draft picks on that side of the ball, including on Myron Rolle, who gives NFL UK fans a sort of home player to support.

This is a team that has played well in fits and starts over the last two years, and will be confident of being a real contender this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars

It’s been a difficult time for the Jaguars since they went 11-5 in 2007. A terrible 2008 looked like it might be put to bed until they finished 2009 with 4 consecutive losses for a final record of 7-9. Worse is that apart from hanging with the Dolphins, they were never really in any of those games. They also had television blackouts for 7 of their home games as various factors affected attendance and you wonder how that affects the players.

This is a team that wasn’t outright bad anywhere on the field, but need small improvements everywhere – something that can often be difficult to put right. However, Coach Del Rio obviously believes in the offence, and they’ve been left largely alone so far this off-season as he’s concentrated on strengthening the defence. Aaron Kampman comes in from Green Bay, and with the 10th overall pick the Jags took Tyson Alualu for two immediate upgrades to the D-Line. They also drafted another tackle, end and linebacker as well as trading for Kirk Morrison in Oakland, who has been a tackle machine in his last two seasons. There will definitely be an improvement with the front seven.

But this team will need luck as well as skill and talent. As with the Texans, I can’t see them getting to 9 wins but think that like last season they’ll hang in the division and can’t be ruled out if a couple of borderline games go their way.

Predictions (made 12th July 2010)

Image Credit: Kagilbert45