First Look 2010… AFC West

So with our final part of this year’s First Look series, we turn our gaze towards the AFC West. As well as the Chargers, who were part of the great entertainment at Wembley Stadium in 2008, NFL UK fans will also keep an eye on this division for the Broncos who will be visiting these shores at the end of October this year.

This was the division that I most accurately predicted last season, correcting stating that the Chargers would win and that the Broncos in second would not make the play-offs. I’d take some credit but really, who saw it any differently?

Let’s see if it’s as straight-forward this year…

San Diego Chargers

The Chargers have had the AFC West as their personal playground for a while now. Last year was their 4th consecutive divisional title, and even when they’re not so good (like 2008′s 8-8 record) the rest of the teams have fallen over themselves to let San Diego take the title.

LaDainian Tomlinson was released after 9 seasons with the Chargers. He was a joy to watch when at his peak, and though that’s clearly past he’ll be hoping to do well in New York with the Jets. It’s quite possible the Jets could meet the Chargers in the play-offs… I hope so, for the teams as much as the story with LDT. Darren Sproles, who was a solid third-down back in 2009 goes into 2010 with another short-term contract in place. 12th overall pick Ryan Mathews in expected to start and to get a lot of carries across the season… if his contract is sorted for training camp then he’s a good fantasy option for the lower rounds!

For the receivers, Vincent Jackson will miss the first few games with a suspension. Along with Sproles, Malcolm Kelly and Antonio Gates will be Philip Rivers‘ main targets.

Defensively, they need to improve a little everywhere. But it’s not a bad unit that has been augmented across the draft with Donald Butler, Darrell Stuckey and Cam Thomas who should all see playing time early – Stuckey in particular at safety.

With core successful parts of the team largely unchanged, this team carries good continuity over from last year. Their loss against the Jets was down to just a few key moments, and they’ll feel there is unfinished business. I can’t look past them for the division. Again.

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders have made a big step forward with finally giving up on the JaMarcus Russell experiment and trading for Jason Campbell from the Redskins. There is no question that he’s an upgrade and should improve whole elements of the game. He’s not perfect, he holds onto the ball too long, and can stall drives in the redzone, but he’s better than Russell. Play-calling this year will be down to Hue Jackson, who’s come in from Baltimore.

Rolando McClain, drafted 8th overall this year, comes in and is the immediate leader on the defence. He needs to help stop the run. Nnamdi Asomugha remains one of the league’s premier corners, and a main reason why this team is so good against the pass (the other is that they’re so bad against the run!)

Coming of successive 5-11 records, they’ll look to to better. I’m not sure I can see it at this point though.

Denver Broncos

Whilst I’m looking forward to mercilessly booing the Broncos at Wembley, there are some intriguing stories to watch develop here. Knowshon Moreno had a great rookie season and was fun to watch, I’ll be hoping he doesn’t suffer the dreaded sophomore slump. Brandon Marshall is now out of town, so Eddie Royal and Demaryius Thomas will look to lead the line. Thomas was the first receiver taken in the 2010 NFL Draft and forms part of a promising young corp. Brandon Lloyd, a favourite of Kyle Orton at Chicago, will also look to hook up with his old quarterback.

Speaking of Orton… he posted his career best stats last season, better than Jay Cutler did in Chicago (much, I’m sure, to Josh McDaniel’s delight). However, he’s now got not only Brady Quinn behind him, but Tim Tebow. Nobody divides opinion quite like Tim Tebow, but common wisdom has him starting 2011 and he could well be used as a redzone impact player… though it’s not so clear which position he’d play! Regardless of those behind him, Orton will be looking to push on.

The Broncos were great against the pass last year, with only the Jets and Bills giving up fewer yards, but it was a different story against the run where they ranked 26th overall. A similar story to Oakland in that regard. Don Martindale moves from linebackers coach to DC and will have to work mainly with the same personnel he had last year.

After starting 6-0 last season and ranking up impressive wins on the way, the Broncos will think they should have done more than becoming only the 7th team since the merger to have such a start and then not make the play-offs. I can – just about – see them getting to 9-7 and being in play-off contention this year. Week 16 against the Texans could be a big game.

Kansas City Chiefs

The poor Chiefs. When a 4-12 record is a big step forward, you know it’s not been a good time.

Matt Cassel was the big signing for the 2009 season but in the end, you could easily make a case for Tyler Thigpen having a better season in 2008 than Cassel did in 2009. Chris Chambers, who came in last year off waivers, has signed a long-term deal and will start opposite Dwayne Bowe. One bright spot for the Chiefs was the emergence of Jamaal Charles at running back. Once Larry Johnson was released, he took over the major share of carries and gained a great YPC average and eventually became the first player in history to get 1,100 yards on fewer than 200 carries.

The story for the Chiefs this year is the big changes to the coaching staff. Pretty much the entire team will be coached by new faces this season, and how quickly adjustments are made will be telling this year for the Chiefs.

They may well improve, but I can’t see them making a big splash in the conference.

Predictions (made 18th July 2010)

Image Credit: Robert Sanque