So many of the divisions seem to have me saying “this is a tough one to call”… and the AFC South is the same again. The Colts took five successfive titles until last year’s impressive Titans‘ run but the Jaguars have made their mark in recent years too.

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The Indiana Colts didn’t have a bad season last year (their 12-4 record hadn’t been beaten in the division’s history) and although Darren Sproles sunk them in the playoffs, it was a close game that – as ever – came down to a few key plays and was finally decided in OT.
This year sees a number of coaching changes, notably Tony Dungy has stepped down, and there has been word from the camp that all is not well in terms of organisation and message. This is a team to watch this off-season.

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The Jags went 2-8 across the last 10 weeks of the season well and truly burying the early season optimism that wins at Denver and Indianapolis had given them. However you cut it, this was a bad year.
The off-season has seen the departure of Fred Taylor (to the Patriots) after 10 years of injury-prone but good service. Maurice Jones-Drew is “the man” this year, a steady progression after seeing his carries increase in each of the last three years.
There’s a lot to find out here yet. The team stats from last season are decidely mid-table on both sides of the ball… they don’t seem to have any urgent needs, but simply need an extra 10% right across the park. That’s a tough ask, and one of the main reasons why I have them propping the table up again.

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I wouldn’t say the Titans were a surpise last year, as they had built up nicely from the two previous seasons. The winning streak was a surprise though, and helped them coast into the playoffs. Chris Johnson was a brilliant draft pick, and stormed to nearly 1500 all-purpose yards. Like with Matt Ryan though, a sophomore slump can’t be ruled out.
As things stand at QB, Kerry Collins will start and even today Vince Young is grumbling. Keeping a lid on his discontent might take up more time than he’s worth. Even if he is seen as the future leader of the team (and that’s by no means certain at this point) Collins is a proven leader and winner. He deserves his spot for now.
Draft-wise, it was a case of supplementing the existing team – and their 12 picks were evenly spread across the team. This is a strong unit, and even with a Haynesworth-sized hole in the defence, I can’t look past them for the division.

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The Houstons remain the poor relative in this division, with not a single playoff appearance since the team came into the league in 2002. There have been signs of progress though, with two consecutive 8-8 seasons combined with them sending 3 players to the Pro-Bowl lat year and had Steve Slaton unfortunate to miss out too.
I can’t see too much progress being made, and think between 7 and 9 wins this year again and no playoffs again.

So there we are… I think the final positions will be the same as last season, though I could see the Colts in 1st or 3rd as much as 2nd.
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