In my First Look at the AFC South I called it one of the toughest to call. And it still looks like that today.

I’ve not made many adjustments to my predictions elsewhere so far. Let’s see if there’s any changes here.

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There had been mumblings and grumblings earlier in the off-season coming from key players related to the coaching changes and everything that entails. Now though, it all seems well. Peyton Manning has commented on some changes, but in either a positive or pragmatic way. This is still a team to watch for now, though we all expect them to be there or thereabouts come the end of the season.

Marvin Harrison has gone, so Manning will be looking at Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzales to produce. Last week I rewatched the Chargers V Colts wildcard and Gonzales had a great game. If he can play like that even half the time then he’ll do well.

On the other side of the ball, the line looks great and we can expect them to play havoc. In fact all across the defense, it’s a good unit.

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I’m not seeing much I like with the Jaguars. At Quarterback it’s David Garrard and/or bust – he needs to play well and stay healthy or we can all see 5-11 happening again. Even assuming he is healthy and productive, the receiving core could be as weak as any other in the league. Of course, it could be one of the best, but with so many rookies coming in they’re an unknown quantity.

Maurice Jones-Drew... short, not small.

Maurice Jones-Drew... short, not small.

Maurice Jones-Drew is a class act at running back, and he’ll be backed up – I suspect – by a strong showing from Rashad Jennings.

Defensively there was not a great showing last year. Not awful in terms of points allowed, but not doing enough across the board. There haven’t been huge changes in personnel, so they’ll be looking at new coordinator Mel Tucker to makes changes and get the best out of who they’ve got.

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I still like the Titans for the division. Kerry Collins can lead the offense, and is backed up by a grumbling Vince Young. Chris Johnson is not lacking in confidence and LenDale has shed some weight so will be spelling CJ when he needs.
Nate Washington comes into the receivers and is an instant starter. He was a good option and deep threat in Pittsburgh, and is an upgrade to this team.

Of course they will miss Haynesworth in defense, but there is enough depth to be a productive unit without him stuffing the middle of the line (something I hope he’ll reproduce in Washington!) and they’re solid in the secondary though like with so many teams there are questions about the depth at several positions.

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The Texans are the sort of plucky underdog that you can’t help but root for. But looking a little closer they have some great players that can really make a difference: Steve Slaton had a great season in 2008 and will be looking to build on that. Matt Schaub, when healthy, can be trusted to produce and Andre Johnson was a stud at WR and is always a threat (and a good Fantasy Football option too).

I like a lot of the defense, and it’s remained largely static – a couple of battles to watch during camp.

Last year, the Texans twice put up 27 points against the Colts and were particularly unlucky in week 5 when the Colts came back from 17 points down in the last quarter. In fact, being only 2-4 in division hurt their final standings despite what could be considered a relatively good season for the new kids. If they can start stronger than last year (0-4, including 3 losses in-division) then we might have to take notice.

I think I was a bit harsh on them in my First Look, though I did suggest they could pip the Colts to second. I’m going to stand by that for now.

Summary
I’m leaving this one the same for now. Come pre-season, when we get to see Manning and what the Colts are up to and I might reconsider the first two places. For now though, I’ll take consistency over change.

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