The NFL combine is coming up this weekend in Indianapolis. Invited players will be measured, weighed and then run through a variety of drills and exercises, while NFL scouts and staff look on and take notes.

It’s worth noting that going into the combine, most teams already have their draft boards about 90% done. A big combine workout performance shouldn’t affect a player’s draft stock. This is a change from the past, mainly because there are a lot of workout wonders who just don’t make it in the NFL. Teams are starting to realise that if you base your draft decision on workouts that actually have little to do with playing football, you are dooming yourself to failure.

Longhorn Colt McCoy

Look at Vernon Gholston. A workout wonder at the combine, he was talked about possibly going first overall to the Miami Dolphins or second overall to the St.Louis Rams, but ended up going sixth to the NY Jets. In his first two years, Gholston has played 379 snaps and blitzed on 207 of those. Out of those 207 blitzes he has just 11 QB pressures and one QB hit, with no sacks. Effectively he is only getting pressure once every 18 or so times he rushes the QB. That’s just terrible, especially for such a high draft pick.

Both the Dolphins and Rams effectively ignored the combine (although both Jake and Chris Long had very good workouts, they weren’t as good as Gholston) instead deciding on who to pick as a result of watching tape and the interviews with the players.

Jimmy Clausen

Gholston isn’t the first workout wonder though. Mike Mamula, a defensive end from Boston College, was not thought to be a first round draft pick prior to the 1995 draft. A strong combine showing propelled him up draft boards, so much so that the Eagles traded their first rounder (12th overall) and two second round picks to Tampa Bay to move up to 7th overall to take him. Mamula never managed much of a career, retiring due to injuries after the 2000 season, but only recording 31.5 sacks in that period. On the other hand, Tampa Bay used its first rounder, now at number 12 overall, to select Warren Sapp. Of course Sapp ended his career with 96.5 sacks, 7 Pro Bowl selections and one Defensive Player of the Year award. The next defensive end taken in the draft was Hugh Douglas, by the New York Jets. Douglas also became a Pro Bowl player, although funnily enough this only occurred once he was traded from the Jets to the Eagles for another two draft picks.

The most important part of the combine for the teams are the player interviews and medicals. Here they will get to talk to the players about their football knowledge and get an understanding of their attitude and personality. Rey Maualuga, a standout linebacker at USC, was thought by some to be the best MLB in the 2009 draft. Maualuga slipped to the second round, apparently due to concerns over his character and football knowledge. During his rookie year, Maualuga struggled to read plays and ended up having a poor year in comparison to fellow rookie linebackers Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews and James Laurinaitis. The character concerns were also revealed to be true when Maualuga was arrested for drunk driving late in January. Players with strong character concerns could be removed from NFL Draft boards altogether by some teams.

This year, the combine medicals will be very important for the top QBs in the class. Sam Bradford of Oklahoma, Jimmy Clausen of Notre Dame and Colt McCoy of Texas are all unable to throw at the combine due to injuries, and the three were expected to be the first three QBs off the board during the draft. This could change if the medical reports are bad. The one that could be hurt most by this is McCoy. Sam Bradford has already dropped from being a consensus first overall pick due to his major shoulder injury that kept him on the sidelines for the majority of his junior year. But reports are that he has been healing well from the injury. McCoy suffered a relatively minor injury in his last game at Texas, and was thought to be healed by now. The fact he is unable to throw will lead to some questions regarding the severity of the injury, and also McCoy’s ability to recover from injury. Injury concerns from McCoy could see him drop from his spot as the third best QB in the draft and replaced by a player like Dan LeFevour, Tony Pike or Zac Robinson, all of whom performed well at the Senior Bowl.

Sam Bradford

Another important part of the combine for NFL scouts is the weighing and measuring of the players. Some strange measurements are considered important for certain positions. For example, arm length is considered very important for Left Tackles, and hand size is important for positions like Running Back and Quarter Back where fumbling could be an issue. The height of the QB is important, as he needs to be able to see over the Offensive Line and pass rushing defenders. While short QBs have been able to succeed in the NFL (see Drew Brees), a team could be unwilling to draft a short QB as high. Jimmy Clausen is one QB where the height measurement will be important. Listed at 6’3 while at Notre Dame, he could see himself drop down the draft if he measures in shorter.

As for player weights, I doubt anyone will be more scrutinised than Alabama NT Terrence Cody. With the 3-4 defence becoming more common, and true Nose Tackles being a rarity (just look how many were franchised tagged this offseason), a big NT like Cody could find himself taken quite high on draft day. The problem with Cody is he weighed a massive 370 lbs at the Senior Bowl, and he was quite a blubbery 370 too. Another issue is that he appears to put on weight easily, weighing in at 355 lbs just 16 days before the Senior Bowl measurement was taken. If he weighs in around 350 lbs at the combine, and keeps his weight at that level, he could end up as a first round pick.

In all, the combine is nothing more than a media event. Its fun for the fans to discuss the results, and makers of mock drafts will shift their positional rankings as a result. But NFL teams will almost pay no attention to the results of combine workouts. Unless they are the Raiders, where Al Davis will presumably get his spreadsheet of combine results and sort by 40 time.

Image Credits:
Colt McCoy – speedye
Jimmy Clausen – jim.cassady
Sam Bradford – SD Dirk