AFC East:

(1) New England Patriots – The Patriots, once again, drafted solidly. They’ve picked up some great talent (as you would expect with the amount of picks they had in the first 3 rounds!) and have also made some noise in free agency picking up the ever controversial number 85. With Brady coming off a great year and with more weapons at his disposal you can’t look past them for the AFC East crown. Stevan Ridley (3rd round pick) has looked sharp and quite a good talent so keep an eye out for him, although with Danny Woodhead and BenJarvus Green-Ellis in front of him he’ll have quite a bit of work to do.

(2) New York Jets – The Jets have also been making some noise in free agency / trades. Letting Jericho Cotchery go, signing Derrick Mason, letting Braylon Edwards go, signing Plaxico Burress to name the more high profile cases, but they’ve also tied up some current talent with Eric Smith and Antonio Cromatie signing new deals. They haven’t weakened as such, but they don’t seem to have improved much either. I’d expect more of the same from the Jets, hard hitting football and a few bumps on the way.

(3) Miami Dolphins – What can be said about the Dolphins for this season? They’re currently going in with a Quarterback that doesn’t seem to have the support of the crowd or the back room staff, and they’ve lost the running tandem of Ronnie Brown (Eagles) and Ricky Williams (Ravens). They did draft pretty well in my opinion, but they’re still behind the Jets and the Pats in this division. Unless a few players have blitzing seasons then a third placed finish is the best they can hope for. Daniel Thomas (2nd round pick) looks a good prospect and with the two veteran running backs gone will have a big part to play in this offense, however with Reggie Bush looking to be the number 1 back he will most likely be sharing carries. Watch out for centre/guard Mike Pouncey (1st round pick) too, he could be a massive factor in how Thomas’ season goes.

(4) Buffalo Bills – The Bills are unfortunately, in my opinion, still propping up the AFC East table in 4th place. They’re improving no doubt, and I do think they could possibly pip a 3rd place finish in this division, but everything needs to click and go right for them and everything needs to go wrong for the Dolphins. With Lee Evans being traded for a 4th round pick to the Ravens they will be expecting big things of Steve Johnson and Fred Jackson, as well as expecting the younger corps of receivers to step up a gear. Marcell Dareus (1st round pick) will be thrown in at the deep end on that defensive line from what I can see, let’s hope he can make an impact.

Andrew Says – First division and already I disagree.

(1) – New England Patriots

(2) – New York Jets

(3) – Buffalo Bills

(4) – Miami Dolphins

You bet against the Pats at your own risk. Last year saw the Jets come close, but I think they’ve got weaker this off-season and don’t see them getting within a game of the division. The Bills will surprise us this year, as will the Dolphins. For opposite reasons.

I like the Jets for a wildcat spot.

AFC South:

(1) Indianapolis Colts – The Manning saga continues this off-season, and although he has just signed a mega deal which will keep him in Indianapolis until he retires his current health is in question. He hasn’t played this off-season and they don’t expect him to play in their last game either, hoping to get him fit for the season opener. His neck issue looks to be a serious one, however if he can play and play to his standards then despite the defensive issues on the team I can see the Colts winning the division once more. Without Manning I have serious questions about this team and if he doesn’t play then Houston will capitalise on this.

(2) Houston Texans – Houston have improved this off-season, defensively anyway. They’ve addressed what needed addressing (mainly the corner situation) and have brought in Johnathan Joseph from the Bengals which immediately gives them a weapon against the deep threats they will face, and they also picked up Brandon Harris in the draft this year, 2nd round. They have lost pro-bowler Vonta Leach to the Ravens, so you have to wonder how that will affect Foster’s production without that man mountain to block for him. Other than that they’re the same old Texans. AJ, Schaub and Foster are the backbone of the offense and are pretty much nailed on to put up big numbers again this year. Wade Phillips will be looking to get the defence up to speed and if they can perform better this year then the Texans will give the Colts a run for the division title.

(3) Tennessee Titans – Not only are Tennessee without Jeff Fisher this year, but they are also without Vince Young  after trading him to the Eagles and will line-up with Matt Hasselbeck under centre with new boy Jake Locker backing him up. CJ2K is still holding out over a new contract, but this is expected to be cleared up over the coming weeks so he should be ready for the season opener. Titan fans will be hoping that Kenny Britt will start the season as he finished after proving to them that he can be that big play receiver they need (he finished the season with 42 receptions, 775 yards, 9TDs, and this was only in 7 appearances). The defence last year were pretty bad, and were on the field more than any other team I believe, so this off season they’ve been bulking up and trying to get some playmakers on this side of the team. They drafted Akeem Ayers to play OLB and he seems to be a legit pass-rusher, and they’ve brought in the massive Shaun Smith to play defensive tackle. They could make a big splash in the South, however I still see the Colts and Texans as better all-round teams at the moment.

(4) Jacksonville Jaguars – Jacksonville, you don’t hear many people talking about them this year, and to be honest you can understand why. They’ve not been making much noise in the free agency market, their draft was… average. They didn’t address the fact they need a pass-rusher after finishing second last in sacks last year, they used their first round pick on a QB, who definitely has talent, but who most likely won’t be featuring this season unless David Garrard cannot play, and Garrard is locked up for another 3 years earning a considerable sum. Jones-Drew is coming off surgery but is looking pretty sharp in practice, and he put up solid numbers last season – although he needs to improve upon his touchdown talley; only reaching 5 rushing touchdowns last season, and you know the Jaguars rely on him to make some plays. Despite the bright spark that is MJD I feel the Jaguars are in for another season of disappointment at the bottom of the AFC South.

Andrew Says – I can get behind this!

(1) – Indianapolis Colts

(2) – Houston Texans

(3) – Tennessee Titans

(4) – Jacksonville Jaguars

As much as I’d like to, I can’t pick the Texans over the Colts. Though they’re clearly not the same team without Peyton, but I still fancy them to win the South. I can see a heart-breaking tie-break keeping Houston out of the post-season. Again. I like what’s happening in Jacksonville, but probably not enough to be bold with them this year.

AFC North:

(1) Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens lost a lot of big name players this off-season. Todd Heap, Derrick Mason, Kelley Gregg to name a few, however they have made a few key signings themselves bringing in the massive Vonta Leach, Lee Evans and Bryant McKinnie (meaning Michael Oher will be moving over to right tackle – FINALLY!) If everyone can stay fit then with the schedule they have they will make a push for the division. One thing they need to do though, get over the Steeler hump. Expect to see Ray Rice hit 2000 yards from scrimmage this year, and Joe Flacco to finally reach the 4000 yard passing club

(1) Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers are pretty much the same club that they were last year, just a little older. They’ll have the same smash mouth defence and will be hard to run on, but they’ll still be weak down the sides as Rodgers proved in the Super Bowl. They will however have Big Ben from the start of the season this year which is a huge bonus to them. He is an elite Quarterback, no doubt, and he will be a massive factor in their success. With Wallace stretching the field, Mendenhall featuring in the backfield and a decent o-line they will be putting points on the board every week. Whoever wins the week 1 game with them and the Ravens will take the division

(3) Cleveland Browns – Cleveland have quietly been going about their pre-season this year, and they’ve looked half decent in the games I’ve seen. McCoy looks even more comfortable in the West Coast offense they’re running down there and he’s becoming more familiar with his targets down the field. Pro-Bowler Joe Thomas will be doing his duty and protecting McCoy on the left giving him time to spot these targets, he could have a quietly good season. Hillis is expected to have a fantastic season after his performances in 2010/11. Will teams see him coming and adjust to stop the run? Could do, and this in turn could help McCoy a lot. A solid run game is always good for the Quarterback. The defence is looking sharp also, I must say. The Browns could very well finish with an 8-8 record at the end of the season, which surely must be a target for Pat Shurmur and co.

(4) Cincinnati Bengals – Cincinnati could very well be looking at the number 1 pick in next years draft in my opinion. They’ve lost Carson Palmer (one way or the other), Ochocinco, Owens, Joseph… A lot of big name players, and veterans of the team. They’re standing with a rookie behind centre, rookies at receiver (talented, yes, but rookie non-the-less) and a shaky defence bar the odd one or two players who I rate. I’m being generous with them finishing with a 4-12 record. They’re rebuilding, that’s plain to see. In a few years they could well be challenging for the division (assuming the guys develop as they are expected to), but at the moment they are raw and unproven.

Andrew Says – Sorry Craig, I can’t see the Ravens topping the Steelers

(1) – Pittsburgh Steelers

(2) – Baltimore Ravens

(3) – Cleveland Browns

(4) – Cincinatti Bengals

This is a division of two leagues, as it were… I think the Browns will have a good year in parts but I can’t see them touching the Ravens or Steelers. The Bengals… well, let’s look again at them in a years time.

Ravens to take a wildcard spot.

AFC West:

(1) San Diego Chargers – The Chargers will have a good season, no question. Phillip Rivers is coming into his own and is the leader of this offense, hell, the team. He’s expecting a big year and he has the weapons to do it. Jackson will be available from the start, Floyd is still kicking about and the monster that is Gates is looking like he could play without an injury which can’t be bad. Defensively they’re as sharp as they can be – and to be honest the defence has been pretty good these last few years. The good news for the Chargers is the Special Teams change in kicking off from the 35yd line, I’ll bet Steve Crosby breathed a sigh of relief when that news was broke. A lot of people are saying this could be their year, I’m optimistic they’ll win their division but I don’t think they’ll win the AFC crown. Not whilst Baltimore still breathe

(2) Denver Broncos – The Broncos have been in the news A LOT lately, mainly over the boy-wonder Tim Tebow and his situation in Denver. I like Tebow, I’ll get this out of the way now. I think he’s a good guy and a good athlete, I don’t think he’ll become the next elite Quarterback but I think he has enough in his locker to be a starter for many years to come. The situation needs to be sorted really, it doesn’t seem like he is wanted in Denver and it’s causing some unrest in the camp, in my opinion. This could very well disrupt the season. It may not, but I can’t see Denver pushing for the title and I do think that the Chargers will win the division by 3 wins or more. I’m looking forward to seeing Von Miller perform though, I do think that the Broncos drafted well when they picked him up with the second pick. I also don’t think any of the receivers will breakout this year like Brandon Lloyd did in 2010, although it’s always nice when they do. Willis McGahee will be one to watch.

(3) Kansas City Chiefs – Yes, I know, I’ve got the Chiefs in 3rd place. Why you ask? Simple, this pre-season (and I know it’s not good to base predictions on this) they have just looked… disjointed. They’ve not shown any spark, they don’t look like the same team. I could be completely wrong – however you know teams are going to be marking Charles a lot, you know that Dwayne Bowe did enough last season to warrant double coverage every now and again, and frankly I do believe these are players who can be controlled by the right defensive schemes – and I’m not sold on the other targets surrounding Cassel. Brandon Flowers is a player that I really like, he can make plays and he is on his way to being a shut-down corner in my book, will people throw his way this year? Who knows, but if they do then they want to make sure the throw is accurate and the route is crisp. They also have another quality player in the backfield by the name of Eric Berry. Only his second year, but his rookie season was as good as he could have hoped, let’s see if his 2nd season is just as good.

(4) Oakland Raiders – We finish off with the Raiders, as many people probably expected. Jason Campbell has got the nod as the starting Quarterback and he’ll have Darren McFadden, the fantasy wonder, lining up next to him. McFadden will be looking to continue his great form from last season, and he could very well do that. He’s a great little athlete, no question. I’m just thinking that without a solid passing game a lot of defences could put their focus on Darren and basically stuff him out of the game. Campbell isn’t a bad Quarterback, but he won’t set the world on fire and the receivers they have aren’t big names who are renowned for their big play ability. They are relatively young, but they’re quick, Hue Jackson will be looking for everyone to contribute. The Oakland defence have been leaky this pre-season, and I know they were bottom of the league a few days ago because of it. I don’t see much changing for the coming season so they’ll be looking at Tyvon Branch to lead the way to a hopefully better performance.

Andrew Says – I agree about the Chargers, but then we disagree again.

(1) – San Diego Chargers

(2) – Oakland Raiders

(3) – Denver Broncos

(4) – Kansas City Chiefs

I think Oakland could have a good year. They’ve had a bit of stability and some steady development in key areas. Yes, there are still questions and the so-called skill positions but I think they’ve got enough. I can see the Chiefs struggling and Denver will improve on last year and push Oakland close. I can’t see anyone else but the Chargers taking command in the West though.

It’s a long time since training camps last year, when many (but by no means all!) of the teams though they could go all the way.

Back in August, we took a look at how we thought the divisions might play out. And… well, we were pretty much wrong across the board. In fact in some divisions we got the predictions exactly the opposite way to how it turned out. What can we say? It’s been that sort of season.

Super Bowl Rings

We’ve had some good turnaround stories this season, like the Rams and the Bucs who were both pushing for post-season places going into the final weeks. We’ve had the pre-season optimism of teams like the Redskins and Cowboys be beaten away by the realities of the season. We’ve had coaches fired, replaced, out of contract and just not as good as they should have been. We’ve had players go through bitterly disappointing seasons or moments and we’ve had the same number of triumphs. We had a good game between two not-so-good teams at Wembley.

All teams have overcome adversity and injuries during the long and gruelling season but two teams are left. The Green Bay Packers from the NFC and the Pittsburgh Steelers from the AFC.

The Packers are one of those teams who looked like they were struggling, but have hung in there throughout the season and with a great win in week 16 (against the rival Bears!) booked themselves into the play-offs at the last possible moment.

Rodgers Scrambles

They had big injuries, like losing Ryan Grant for the season in week 1, successive losses in overtime to the lightweight Redskins and Dolphins. Rodgers was concussed and at times they didn’t like championship worthy. But they’ve be playing great football for a while now and their last few games have certainly been championship ball.

The Steelers, as we all know, started the season without their starting quarterback. They traded away a Super Bowl MVP and it looked like the defence was losing a step. For most of the season they were neck and neck with the Ravens but were able to book a first-round bye with their strong showing as the season drew to an end.

Both coaches, Mike McCarthy and Mike Tomlin have both done incredibly jobs this year.

In the past few weeks we’ve looked at both teams in some depth, so we’re not going to do that again. Instead, let’s take a look at each element of the game and see how has the edge. No, it’s not a novel approach. But it works.

Passing Offence

The Packers have, in Aaron Rodgers, one of the finest quarterbacks in the NFL at the moment. His game in the divisional round against the Falcons was simply amazing and whilst he couldn’t produce the same against the Bears (in the last two games against them at least) there is always the danger that he can. With Greg Jennings and Donald Driver leading, they have a receiving corp that with a fine balance of explosiveness and experience and adding in a young and strong tight end and you get the feeling that if there’s a play there, this team will find it.

Ward blocks for Mendenhall

The Steelers are known more as a running team but their aerial game cannot be ruled out. Ben Roethlisberger has proven consistently difficult to bring down, he can extend a play and has an arm too. Mike Wallace is a legitimate deep threat and Hines Ward is as tough as they come. Tight end Heath Miller is also a threat.

There is not much to chose between these two teams, so it comes down to Rodgers v Roethlisberger. I have to give Rodgers the edge for big plays, but Roethlisberger the edge for “making it happen”.

Advantage: Packers, by a very slender margin.

Rushing Offence

As mentioned above when you think of the Steelers, you see them running it; pounding it up the middle and gaining serious yards. It’s their history and a large part of their identity and although they can move it in the air, they like to run it. With Rashad Mendenhall leading, they’ve a solid game and an offensive line that loves to go forward.

The Packers are not so rich out of the backfield. When Grant went down it took a while for them to adjust and have any sort of faith in the ground game. Brandon Jackson and James Stark will handle things here, and although the line is strong they’re not as practised, experienced or as confident on the ground as the Steelers are.

Advantage: Steelers.

Pass Defence

During the regular season the Packers were a top 5 unit against the pass. At times, they’ve looked a lot better than that, but so far in the post-season they’ve given up a lot of big plays. Yet they’ve also increased their interception average.

Steelers Defense

Their secondary is as good as it gets, and as long as they don’t get too aggressive. Tramon Williams has been having a great time, strongly aided by Charles Woodson on the other side of the pitch but I also like Sam Shields and the safeties. Like I said: as good as it gets.

The Steelers have got good stats in their last two games, but these have been against the Ravens and Jets. Both could be called “run-first” teams, but it’s certainly true of the Jets. Whilst both of those teams feature good receivers, with respect to Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez… they’re not Aaron Rodgers. Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden in particular will need to play an intelligent game. If there is one upside for the Steelers here, their defensive ends are superb and we should expect to see Lamarr Woodley and James Harrison getting pressure on Rodgers.

Advantage: Packers.

Run Defence

By some margin the Steelers are the best here. Not just against the Packers, but against the entire league. When you factor in the Packers’ running game, you have to imagine that Aaron Rodgers will be called on. A lot.

The Packers are… credible. Mid-table. Average. This is a really important aspect of the play for the Packers. They need to be as strong as they can be against the run to try and make the Steelers put the ball in the air, which would favour Green Bay.

Advantage: Steelers

Special Teams

There’s not much to swing either way here. The smooth field and controlled atmosphere of Cowboys Stadium will seem vastly different to the notoriously difficult pitches of Lambeau and Heinz Field. We might see a punt hit the screen though… I wonder what the odds are on that?

No overall advantage.

Steelers' Sideline

Intangibles

By their very definition it’s hard to define what we mean here. I guess this is a catch-all for ‘everything else’. In experience I have to give the edge to the Steelers here. They are regular Super Bowl attendees and will probably have a smoother time of preparation because of their experience here. They’re also the slight underdogs. Every team likes being the underdogs in a game that should essentially be pretty close.

Advantage: Steelers

Coaching

As I mentioned above, both coaches have done a great job this year in dealing with issues both on and off the field. Mike Tomlin is in only his 4th year as a coach  and aged just 38 is at his second Super Bowl. That’s an impressive record. At 47 and in his 5th year, this is Mike McCarthy’s first Super Bowl, but this season he’s had to do deal with more problems on the field. We’ve covered the injuries earlier in this post, and McCarthy has found a way to work with what he’s got and move forward. Tomlin has also had challenges and in both cases the coaches have made it work.

Tomlin has been in more of the big games, so he has an edge in experience here and I also think that I’d give the edge to the Steelers for the strength of the rest of the coaching team. But as with so many of these categories, it’s a close one.

Advantage: Steelers

Predictions

As much as I like the Packers, and want them to win, I think that the Steelers have a narrow edge on the field and a bigger edge off it in terms of experience and intangibles. I’m picking Pittsburgh to win their 7th Super Bowl.

Craig Says:

Brandon Jackson

Here it is, the match everyone is looking forward to and the match every team wanted to play in. The Superbowl baby! Excitement is high and everyone is buzzing for sundays game which sees the AFC Pittsburgh Steelers against the NFC Green Bay Packers. Both teams have played some great football to get here, no doubt. The Steelers got passed the Ravens and the Jets after a bye week for winning their division, and the Packers beat the Eagles, the Falcons and the Bears, all away.

I think we’re in for a good game. Both offences and defences are amongst the best in the league, and it really could come down to turnovers as to who comes out victorious. Aaron Rodgers (QB) v Troy Polamalu (S), Matthews (OLB) v the Steelers O-line, Greg Jennings (WR) v Ike Taylor (CB), Mike Wallace (WR) v Charles Woodson (CB), Mike Tomlin (Coach) v Mike McCarthy (Coach).. the game is full of battles which will be interesting to keep an eye on. Any one of these could be the tide turner, but I’ve gotta give the edge to the Packers for this.

Plus, you know, the Steelers suck and stuff.

Graham Says:

The bookies have Green Bay as the favourites (£1.5m matched on Betfair as of Thursday morning) but it is not by a wide margin.

Personally I think the Steelers will find a way to win this. There is so much experience there and that can count for a lot at this level of the game. Most of all I am looking forward to watching a great game in what should be a close and exciting Super Bowl. Break out the beer and jerky!

Steelers to win.

Image Credits:
Ward blocking for Mendenhall: tomcoolinmiami
Super Bowl Rings – John Tornow
Brandon Jackson – Elvis Kennedy
Steelers Sideline – Elizabeth Kuhns
Rodgers Scrambles – Neil Staeck
Steelers Defense – Alex Abboud

These are two teams that have not played each other much over the years. Even if we go back two games, we’re looking at Brett Favre and Charlie Batch as the starting QBs and to get 5 previous games we have to go back nearly 20 years. That includes a 7 year gap between 1998 and 2005 where these teams did not play each other. With the current scheduling all teams play at least once every four years and apart from this Super Bowl, the next scheduled match between them won’t be until the 2013 season.

Dallas Stadium, site of Super Bowl 45

So there is probably not much we can read into previous matchups, as 4 years is an eternity for an NFL team. But let’s take a look at the last time these two teams met, just over a year ago as the 2009 season was drawing to a close.

Week 15, 2009: Green Bay 36 – 37 Pittsburgh
This was a fantastic game and there will be no complaints from any quarter if Super Bowl 45 plays out as this game did.

The Steelers had lost their previous 5 games, all narrow losses (including two in overtime) and critically, against each of their divisional rivals. Their Play-Off chances were slim at this point and desperately needed a win. (They would eventually finish third in the AFC North and miss the play-offs on a tie-breaker).

The Steelers lead 24-14 going into the 4th quarter, but when Aaron Rodgers connected with Jermichael Finlay for a TD, it was getting very close. The Steelers got a field goal, but then a 4 play quick-drive saw Ryan Grant get another TD on a 24 yard run. The Steelers again responded with a FG, but the Packers weren’t done and got their third TD of the quarter and capped it off with a 2 point conversion to take a 36-30 lead with just over 2 minutes to play.

As it happens, it was too long and Ben Roethlisberger and the two minute offense were able to drive it down the field and in, with Mike Wallace making the scoring catch. Jeff Reed kicked the PAT to take the win. The critical play on this drive was an interception that was wiped out by an illegal holding call.

Ben Roethlisberger put up 503 yards in the air, becoming the first Steeler to do so. Rodgers completed 26 of his 48 attempts for 383 yards and both quarterbacks scored 3 TDs. The two teams combined for a total of 125 yards on the ground, but nearly 900 in the air. There were no interceptions and no fumbles. It was that type of game.

Previous 4 Meetings:
Week 9, 2005: Pittsburgh 20 – 10 Green Bay
Week 10, 1998: Green Bay 27 – Pittsburgh 20
Week 17, 1995: Pittsburgh 19 – 25 Green Bay
Week 4, 1992: Pittsburgh 3 – 17 Green Bay

Image Credit: Scott Ellis

New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday 23rd January, 11:30pm UK Time

It seems like a long time ago that Rex Ryan announced shortly into the first episode of Hard Knocks that the Jets were going to win the Super Bowl; that they were the best and this was the year. Now, going into the conference championship for the second consecutive season they’ll be hoping to get past the hurdle they fell at last year.

The Steelers started this season under a cloud of controversy and talk of their starting QB being traded. Coach Mike Tomlin kept the ship steady and really it’s no surprise to see the Steelers competing – again – in the Championship game.

Heinz Field

Apart from the game this season, these teams hadn’t met since 2007. A lot has happened since then, like the Steelers winning the Super Bowl in 2008 and the resurgence of the Jets under Rex Ryan. Let’s take a look at the last few meetings

Week 15, 2010: New York Jets 22 – 17 Pittsburgh Steelers

Mark Sanchez

The Jets were coming in off a two game losing streak and had really struggled against the Patriots and the Dolphins. The offence was spluttering and the defence had been ripped to shreds against the Patriots. A win here was vital for them, but the Steelers almost won it. Two incomplete passes from the 10 yard line finished the game, but it was a close one.

Despite the loss, this week saw the Steelers book their post-season place.

Week 11, 2007: Pittsburgh Steelers 16 – 19 New York Jets (OT)

This was one of precious few high points for the Jets, who went 4-12 this year. The Steelers made the post-season but were knocked out by the Jaguars in the wildcards.

Week 14, 2004: New York Jets 6 – 17 Pittsburgh Steelers

and

Divisional Round, 2004: New York Jets 17 – 20 Pittsburgh Steelers (OT)

Despite a close play-off game, it was New Yorks for the taking. But when Doug Brien missed two field goals at the end of regulation the game was sent to overtime and the Steelers moved the ball down the field and a field goal kept them moving. They’d be stopped in the Championship game by the Patriots (who went on to beat the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX.

————————————-

Offensively for the Jets, they’re going to have to rely on their running game to open things up for the pass. LaDanian Tomlinson and Shonne Green are a good pairing, the right combination for a one-two punch out of the backfield. But they’re up against the team who are by some margin the best at stopping the run.

As we’ve seen across his first two seasons, Mark Sanchez can blow hot and cold. He can be calm, composed and lead the team and he can just as readily turn in a complete shambles of a performance. There’s been talk that he’s still adjusting after coming out of college early, that he’s still young, etc., etc. But when he’s good, he can be very good. Even when bad, he can still turn up for the 4th quarter so we can’t rule him out even if he’s struggling throughout the game. This will be a big game for Santonio Holmes, who as we know was traded by the Steelers before this season started. After he served his suspension he’s been back and on great form. He’ll want to improve on his 6 catches for 40 yards that he got in the week 15 meeting here.

Troy Polamalu

The Steelers’ secondary has been occasionally exposed, but is by no means a weak unit. And of course they have the game changer called Troy Polamalu. Jets’ QB Mark Sanchez  said of Polamalu that he “…plays like his hair is on fire, and he’s got a lot of hair, so that’s a lot of fire”. He does, he’s all over the place and rarely does he make a misstep.

I spoke yesterday about Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams, that they’re the dominant corners in the league at the moment. I don’t rank Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie quite as highly, but they are no slouches either. And they’re coming off the performance against the Patriots who they completely shut down. Cromartie is the weaker of the two, though has the physical gifts to make plays. The Steelers have receivers that are more experienced, and probably more explosive, than the Patriots do though so the battle in the secondary is going to be great to watch. With the physical game of Hines Ward, the deep threat of Mike Wallace and the good hands of Heath Miller, Revis, Cromartie and the others could have their hands full.

There’s a lot to admire about the play of Ben Roethlisberger. He’s big and strong, he can extend the play as well as anyone else out there and he’s got a killer pump-fake. I expect that a lot of the game will be decided on the ground, but when Ben does step back expect to wait for the play to develop. On those plays the Jets will hope to get to him like they managed with Tom Brady last week, and Bart Scott will be as dangerous as he ever is. But I think they’ll have a harder time getting to Roethlisberger.

This is a very difficult game to call. The Jets have momentum and a self-confidence (or arrogance, if you’d prefer) that means they’re going in expecting to win. The Steelers are proven winners and have more experience across the field, but they’re capable of making huge mistakes as we saw in last week’s first-half.  This one is practically a coin-flip for me.

Though I like the narrative of the Jets going into this game, ultimately I think the Steelers are better. It’ll come down to a couple of key plays, and it’ll be close, but the Steelers will get it done.

Graham Says:

I went with the Jets last weekend as I just think they are riding a wave of luck on a skill surfboard.  After knocking the highly fancied Pats out of the running they must also now have an unshakable belief that they can do it.

Some would say the Steelers present more of a challenge than the Patriots did, but I think we will see the Jets in the Super bowl this year.

Ben Roethlisberger

Craig Says:

This weekend will see two dominant defences face-off to settle the AFC Conference championship. The Jets take on the Steelers in what could be a gruelling encounter. The Steelers get through to the final after doing enough to clinch their division (by a divisional record of +1) resulting in a bye week, and then victory over the Ravens last week which I’m still bitter about. A collapse by the Ravens offence during the entire third quarter allowed the Steelers defence (who it has to be said, played out of their skins) to cause 3 turnovers and peg back the 14 point deficit from the previous half.

The Jets got through the Wildcard round beating the Colts AND then the Patriots, both on the road too. That in itself is impressive. Rex Ryan is obviously confident with his teams ability considering all the talking he’s been doing as of late, I just can’t help but think that it might come back and bite him in the ass.

The Steelers need to be respected, so in the build up to the game it will be interesting to see how it all unfolds. Obviously the trash talking with the Patriots was due to a massive rivalry between the two, but Ryan does love his mind games. If the Steelers play like they did in the second half last week then I can’t see them being beaten. The Jets were impressive against New England though.. It’s a tough one to call.

I can honestly see this heading into overtime and being won on a Field Goal. My gut is saying Jets win.

Image Credits:
Heinz Field – Natalie Litz
Mark Sanchez – TexKap
Troy Polamalu – Andy emcee
Ben Roethliserger – Alex Abboud

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Sunday 23rd, 8:00pm UK Time

When these teams both from the same division there is a lot of history and many stories to draw on. It also means that they know each other very well and this one will mean even more than you’d imagine a Conference Championship will.

These two teams have only met once before in the post-season and that was back in December 1941 (7 days after the attack on Pearl Harbour). But with 182 previous meetings between these teams, this is the NFL’s longest rivalry. Chicago currently leads the series 92–83–6, but Green Bay have had the edge in recent meetings.

Soldier Field

Let’s take a quick look at the last two years:

Week 17, 2010: Chicago Bears 3 – 10 Green Bay Packers

The Bears had already booked their playoff place, and couldn’t improve their seeding. You’d imagine a team would rest its starters in that situation, but it wasn’t to be the case as they fielded the first teamers for most of the game. If ever a game has been dominated by the defences then this was it, but finally a late TD from Rodgers to Lee secured the win and a post-season place for the Packers

Week 3, 2010:  Green Bay Packers 17 – 20 Chicago Bears

For the Packers this game was defined by penalties and mistakes. 18 penalties meant they were always struggling and when Urlacher forced the ball out of James Jones’ hand to give the Bears the ball at midfield with under 3 minutes and the game tied there was a pass interference call that put the Bears in FG range to take the win.

Week 14, 2009: Green Bay Packers 21 -14 Chicago Bears

In 2009 the Packers had a running game that could pick up the slack when the passing game wasn’t working. That was the case this game with Ryan Grant averaging nearly 7 yards on his 20 carries and two touchdowns. Conversely the Bears couldn’t get going on the ground. Although Rodgers was sacked an awful lot in 2009, the Bears only got to him twice in this game, but they did play good coverage.

Bears Line Up

Week 1, 2009: Chicago Bears 15 – 21 Green Bay Packers

This was a good close game, but it was Cutler’s debut as a Bear and he struggled at times (as his four interceptions shows). One of those picks was just terrible, but can be put down to growing pains. The Bears pestered Rodgers all night, including sacking him for a safety at one point but they also suffered some injruies and lost Urlacher for the season

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The Packers absolutely dismantled the Falcons last weekend. It was one of those performances where everything worked, it all came together, and they looked unbeatable more or less from opening kick. The defense was strong, Rodgers was tearing it up, the running game was going and the defence made Matt Ryan look like a rookie. If they show up and play like that again, this one could be over by the half.

However, rivalries are rarely like that.

The Bears have had a good season overall. Once the new offence was bedded in, all involved have looked a lot more comfortable (and of course, Cutler isn’t getting sacked as much). Matt Forte has kept the ball moving on the ground and that has kept the offence balanced. Defensively they’ve been a typical Bears team – very strong against the run, pressure on the QB. Julius Peppers at DE was an inspired signing and has made a real difference. But they’ve not been as good against the pass.

The Packers have also been very strong on defence and although they’ve been alright against the run, they’ve been great against the pass. With Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams on fire they’ve arguably the strongest pair of corners in the league right now.

Aaron Rodgers Scrambles

Looking at the matchups across the field, and considering the form I have to go with the Packers for this game. You’ll have noticed my man-crush on Aaron Rodgers already, but if asked to win the game he can do that. I’m not sure the same can be said of Jay Cutler (not against the Packers). Defensively though, the Bears can force the Packers to become one-dimensional, but I’m not sure that’s going to help them much.

I’m expecting a close game, but one the Packers will win.

Craig says:

There’s nothing like a good old rivalry to decide who will be heading to the Superbowl from the NFC side of the league!

As Andrew has covered - the Packers and The Bears are no strangers to each other, and this year’s matches were both were close encounters. Each team has done very well to reach this far with the Pack have defeated the Eagles and the high-flying Falcons (no pun intended) to reach the Conference Championship, whereas the Bears did enough in the season to win their division resulting in a bye-week followed by a match against the Seattle Seahawks (which the Bears won quite comfortably).

I have a feeling it will be a one sided match-up rather than a close, scrappy game that we come to expect from rivalries. Based on last weeks performance and their current form I’m going to have to go for the Packers. Rodgers is playing exceptionally well, they even have some form of a running game going on with Starks settling in. The defence is as tight as ever and Clay Matthews seems to have hit top form again. Cutler will probably be seeing a lot of him this weekend.

Packers to win.

Soldier Field

Graham Says:

This should be a nice close game, which will make great TV. While the Packers are hot favourites with the bookies, I see the game going the other way.  The Bears are getting better as they go along and I just feel they have what it takes to edge this one.

Not a hot bet for me, more an opportunity to watch what should be a great footballing spectacle.

	Andrew	Graham	Craig		Offical MAC Prediction
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Image Credits:
Soldier Field Entrance- dgphilli
Soldier Field Panoramic – the extinction blues
Aaron Rodgers – nstaeck
Bears Line Up – tyle_r

So the wildcard weekend has been and gone and we’re now left with 8 teams who are looking to make it all the way to the Superbowl. We’ve got some tasty matches to look forward to this weekend, and today I’ll be looking at one of them. It’s one of the most physical rivalries in the NFL and a contest which more often than not is pretty close in all aspects. On Saturday 15^th January the Baltimore Ravens travel to Heinz Field to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Looking into this game there are literally hundreds of stats I could reel off. These 2 teams are well accustomed with each other and, playing in the same division, face off at least twice a season and have done since 1996 when the Ravens were established as a franchise. So there is a long history there, many games and many scores, many records and many talking points. So instead of waffling on I’ll just note some of the stats that I’ve seen about this lately.

This year, the Steelers finished with a 5-3 record at home and a 7-1 record on the road where-as the Ravens finished with the exact opposite record, a 5-3 away record and a 7-1 home record. Over the last 17 meetings between these 2 teams they have scored the exact same amount of points. In the regular season both teams finished with a 12-4 beating each other once each, the only separation between the two is the 5-1 to 4-2 divisional record in favour of the Steelers (which is why the Steelers won the division). In the era of John Harbaugh the Ravens are 0-5 against Ben Roethlisberger (both wins came with Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch at Quarterback). Judging by these stats I’ve seen the last couple of days its looks as though Big Ben is a huge factor in the way this game could swing.

As mentioned, the Steelers won the division giving them a bye-week in the playoff scenario.

People are in two minds over whether they are now at an advantage or a disadvantage. There are always differing opinions over this. Yes they have had a week off after a long season, this in turn has allowed players with those little niggles to get fit and be 100% for the Divisional game. On the flip side, they have lost any momentum they had at the end of the season. The Ravens played last week, and by all accounts they looked like genuine contenders for a ring. The offence clicked, the defence were everywhere, Flacco actually looked like an established Quarterback – picking all the right plays and managing the clock as well as I have seen it managed – he lead them on a 10 minute drive in the 4^th quarter resulting in a touchdown! I know who’s shoes I’d rather be in on Saturday, how about you?

All in all, there is a lot more I could say about this match-up, but you know what to expect anyway. It will be hard-hitting, it will be tight, and it will be scrappy. My final though… this game could be very well won by penalties. The referees will be a big factor in this meeting.

As expected, I’m going for a Ravens win… BABY!

Image Credit:
Pittsburgh Skyline – Zach McCormick
Ray Lewis – Keith Allison

The Jets @ Colts was always going to be close but who thought that the Seahawks would get the win over the Saints? The run by Marshawn Lynch for the go-ahead score was amazing to watch both for the commitment from the ‘Hawks and the shambles that was the Saint’s defense.

This week sees the number 1 and 2 seeds get involved and in every case we have rematches of games that happened earlier in the season. In three cases, the games were decided by 3 points: In Week 6 the Seahawks got a win at Soldier field; week 12 saw the Packers lose in the Georgia Dome; In week 13 the Ravens lost to the Steelers (but beat them in Pittsburgh in week 4 – again by 3 points). The Jets got creamed by the Pats when they were last at Foxboro (week 13, 45-3) but beat them 28-14 back in week 2 at the New Meadowlands.

These are intriguing matchups.

For a list of the games, visit http://www.nfl.com/schedules.

	Andrew	Graham	Craig		Offical MAC Prediction
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers Saturday 15th January
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons Saturday 15th January
Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears Sunday 16th January
New York Jets @ New England Patriots Sunday 16th January

If you’re having trouble with the images, our picks are as follows:
Ravens, Packers, Bears, Patriots

Image Credit:
Foxboro – John and Carolina

When Tramon Williams jogged casually out of the end zone, looking for someone to celebrate his game winning interception last week against the Eagles, he didn’t know the play was still going. When he finally went to the ground (and was covered immediately by team-mates) to end the play he’d put Michael Vick and the Eagles out of the play-offs. The Pack’s reward is another rematch, in the shape of a trip to take on the Atlanta Falcons for a place in the Conference Championship.

Matt Ryan Drops Back

Ranked #1 and having looked good right across the season, the Falcons were the class of the NFC. Going 7-1 at home and 6-2 on the road, they set the bar high for everyone else to follow. And yet when you look purely at the stat tables, you wonder how they did it. They rank 16th in both offence and defence. When you look at the wins, you see that at home they were in close games but away they frequently blew out their opponents. They did have a favourable schedule, but they made the most of these games.
Matt Ryan has only ever lost two games in the Dome and will fancy his chances again here. With Michael Turner having a great season out of the backfield, the Packers will be kept honest against the run which should open things up for Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White and the rest of the receiving corp. White was held largely in check before by Williams and Charles Woodson.

Georgia Dome, Atlanta

The Falcons have been good all year on special teams and I have to give them the edge there. I prefer the pass defence of the Packers, and I prefer Rodgers to Ryan if it comes to a duel, but the Falcons have a better running game to help their QB with. The Falcons will be rested and as well coached and prepared as they’ve been all year.

When these teams played before, Aaron Rodgers played like a real warrior. He passed for nearly 350 yards, he ran for 50 more and a TD, gutsy 4th down plays… he did everything. With very little running game to call on (26 yards on 10 carries from Brandon Jackson), he did a great job against a defence that was facing a one-dimensional offence. The game nearly went into overtime, but Matt Bryant kicked a 47 yard FG to take the late win.

Here’s the bottom line: This is the sort of game that every football fan looks forward to. Two great teams, with strengths across the field, looking to go out and get a win. When I look at each element of the match-ups across the field I fancy the Packers by a fraction. This is going to be a close game and it’s one that I’m very much looking forward to.

Packers with a narrow win.

Image Credits:
Georgia Dome – Gregor Smith
Ryan Drops Back – Mike

Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

All 5 Meetings:
2009 – Chiefs 24-38 Ravens
2006 – Ravens 20-10 Chiefs
2004 – Chiefs 27-24 Ravens
2003 – Chiefs 17-10 Ravens
1999 – Chiefs 35-8 Ravens

The Ravens and Chiefs have only met 5 times, Kansas leads the series 3-2. They have never met in the post-season.

With the regular season finished and the play-offs on the horizon we now know the teams who will be battling it out to reach the Holy Grail of American Football, the Super Bowl. There are two matches from the AFC this Sunday, and I’ll be taking a look at the Baltimore Ravens who travel to the Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Ravens finished the season with an impressive 12-4 record. I say impressive simply because they have been mediocre in my opinion, especially on offence. Baltimore are renowned for their hard-hitting and stubborn defence and their run first offence, I think that much is known around the NFL circles. This season has seen many changes, one being the improvement of the quality of wide receivers in the team. You’d think, having the kind of running game they have that these receivers would have done a lot more this season than they have done. Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason, TJ Houshmandzadeh, all arguably number 1 receivers. Joe Flacco, a solid Quarterback who is growing each and every season has a plethora of targets to choose from and all of them are capable of getting 1000yards (Not one reached that milestone this season). No question. You also have Ray Rice, a very capable running back who is explosive coming out of the backfield either with the ball in his hand or running a route. So you have to ask yourself, how does a team with an offence, AND an offensive line such as Baltimore only rank 20th in the pass, 22nd in yards per game and 16th in points per game? Something just isn’t clicking somewhere. Is Flacco holding back from looking for that deep downfield ball to stretch the defence? Is he dumping off all too often to Ray Rice when no-one is open (Rice has 63 catches this season, 2nd highest in the team)? Is the lack of catches getting to the wide receivers causing some unrest (as we saw when Mason and Flacco had that argument on the sideline)? Who does it come down to at the end of the day? The Quarterback? The offensive coordinator (Play calling has been a little suspect)? The Coach? The Receivers? Who-ever is a fault they need to step it up a few gears now. The play-offs are harsh and one mistake ends your season. You need to be flawless. As this team proved against the Bengals last week, the offence is far from that.

Defensively has been more of the same. Great against the run (5th), not so much against the pass (21st), however the Ravens finished 3rd in points against and 10th in yards against so there isn’t much to fault there. They have been pretty consistent in their duties and have made plenty of plays resulting in turnovers (Ed Reed, I’m looking at you). I’d argue that they are still weakest at the corner position, despite the fact that Lardarius Webb came in and looked very good, Josh Wilson came in and did a great job, Fabian Washington looked solid most of the time and Chris Carr settled in when he played. They still need that one dependable playmaker that Quarterbacks are afraid to throw to. They have Lewis in the middle, Suggs coming off the edge and Reed in the middle, put someone on the side and it’s almost a complete package. Haloti Ngata is always a threat up front, and I’ve been impressed with Cory Redding when I’ve seen him play. Dannell Ellerbe has shown that he can be a factor in the middle of the pack and Jarrett Johnson has really stepped up this year. So yeah, it’s a great defence with a number of players who have that playmaking factor, but the offence cannot rely on them to win games like they have done. They need to put points on the board and take some of the pressure off these guys because lets’ face it, they have basically carried the team for the majority of the season (BOLD statement!)

Arrowhead Stadium

The Kansas City Chiefs, by all accounts, have performed exceptionally. They finished with a 10-6 record, a huge improvement over last seasons 4-12. They also finished top of the AFC West, something they have not done since 2003. A major reason for this is the effectiveness of the running game this season. They have the power of Thomas Jones and the explosiveness of Jamaal Charles, and both have performed to expectations. Charles himself has hit 1427 yards this season at an amazing 6.38 yards per carry. How has he managed this? In my opnion Thomas Jones’ hard work and continuous pounding of the defence has left Charles to come in and hit them when they’re vunerable. Credit goes to the offensive co-ordinator Charlie Weis for using this to a huge advantage. Due to the success of the running game this has allowed Matt Cassel to slowly go about this business, and this is something he has done to great effect. Matt has threw for a little over 3000 yards, which in itself isn’t a huge number, but it doesn’t need to be when you’re getting over 2000 yards from your running backs. Due to him only throwing when he see’s fit his turnover is quite impressive, totalling only 7 interceptions compared to his 27 touchdowns (15 of which to Dwayne Bowe!) The Baltimore defence will be in for a tough test against a well oiled offence this Sunday.

Their defence this year has been solid, not excelling in any particular area but not appearing weak either. They are allowing on average 20 points a game, but averaging 22 points scored which is why they have gone on to get a 10-6 record. The offensive line has done well to protect the running backs and allowed them to find the gaps and get the yards, at the same time they have allowed 32 sacks on Matt Cassel. Compared to Chicago (who allowed 56) you won’t grumble at this number, but compared to say the Giants (who allowed 16) you might raise your eyebrow slightly. The Chiefs defence themselves have managed to get 38 sacks which puts them joint 12th in the league. A lot higher than the Ravens are in this area.

All in all I think this game has everything in place to be a good one, and one I look forward to watching. They appear to be a good match in all areas, and it is definitely tough to choose the outcome of this game, however, being a Ravens fan I’m going to have to go with Baltimore win.

Image Credits:
Arrowhead Stadium – B. Baltimore Brown
Joe Flacco – Keith Allison