Ego Number One

So I’m sure you’d have heard about this, but on the off-chance… Terrell Owens has agreed terms with the Cincinnati Bengals and has joined up with them for training. He’s signed a one-year deal and Antonio Bryant has handed him his favoured #81 shirt (in exchange for a donation to one of little leagues) so the Chad and Terrell (and Antonio!) era begins. The CO/TO show.

Owens is 36 now, and not the number 1 option that he was, but he won’t be asked to be. He’ll need to contribute when called on, and be a good team member. You can’t really use last year’s stats as an indicator of his performance as the Bills were pretty bad. What you can look at is that he was a good soldier – the model of a quiet (for him) professional who just got on with it. If he can bring that attitude in, then he should do fine. And it’s difficult to imagine him taking verbal pops at Carson Palmer and have the team stand for it – their QB has proved himself again and again and is a popular leader there.

Ego Number Two

So how does this affect the AFC North, and in particular our predictions there. Craig pointed out that they had strengthened and suggested they could challenge for the division… I think that’s fair, and if they can improve their passing game (ranked 26th overall in 2009) then they are contenders and if they can complete more outside of the division then Craig’s Ravens could be in trouble again.

Craig’s View:

Yeah, they’re stacked with receivers… but they don’t have Ray Lewis on defence.

Image Credits:
CO – Clay Seal
TO – Brad Bethell Photography

In thirteen days the Bengals face the Cowboys in the Hall of Fame game. It’ll be the first chance to get a look at Dez Bryant, Jermaine Gresham and the other rookies. Antonio Bryant in a Bengals uniform and the always entertaining Chad Ochocinco.

In forty-five days, the mouth-watering matchup of the Minnesota Vikings at the New Orleans Saints. That’s a heck of a way to open the regular season and a game I suspect we’ll be staying up for it.

And in ninety-seven days we’ll be at Wembley (for the forth year running!) as the NFL comes again to the UK. This year the Broncos visit the 49ers. We get to see Alex Smith, Frank Gore and the rest of Mike Singletary’s 49ers as well as the Broncos. We’ll be keeping an eye on both of these teams in the build-up to October 31st.

Coming up in the next few weeks we’ll gear up for our in-season mode, which features predictions on every match as well as in-depth looks at three matches a week. Before then we’ll make our predictions on the post-season and keep our eyes on the big stories and how they’ll affect our predictions.

Keep visiting!

So with our final part of this year’s First Look series, we turn our gaze towards the AFC West. As well as the Chargers, who were part of the great entertainment at Wembley Stadium in 2008, NFL UK fans will also keep an eye on this division for the Broncos who will be visiting these shores at the end of October this year.

This was the division that I most accurately predicted last season, correcting stating that the Chargers would win and that the Broncos in second would not make the play-offs. I’d take some credit but really, who saw it any differently?

Let’s see if it’s as straight-forward this year…

San Diego Chargers

The Chargers have had the AFC West as their personal playground for a while now. Last year was their 4th consecutive divisional title, and even when they’re not so good (like 2008’s 8-8 record) the rest of the teams have fallen over themselves to let San Diego take the title.

LaDainian Tomlinson was released after 9 seasons with the Chargers. He was a joy to watch when at his peak, and though that’s clearly past he’ll be hoping to do well in New York with the Jets. It’s quite possible the Jets could meet the Chargers in the play-offs… I hope so, for the teams as much as the story with LDT. Darren Sproles, who was a solid third-down back in 2009 goes into 2010 with another short-term contract in place. 12th overall pick Ryan Mathews in expected to start and to get a lot of carries across the season… if his contract is sorted for training camp then he’s a good fantasy option for the lower rounds!

For the receivers, Vincent Jackson will miss the first few games with a suspension. Along with Sproles, Malcolm Kelly and Antonio Gates will be Philip Rivers‘ main targets.

Defensively, they need to improve a little everywhere. But it’s not a bad unit that has been augmented across the draft with Donald Butler, Darrell Stuckey and Cam Thomas who should all see playing time early – Stuckey in particular at safety.

With core successful parts of the team largely unchanged, this team carries good continuity over from last year. Their loss against the Jets was down to just a few key moments, and they’ll feel there is unfinished business. I can’t look past them for the division. Again.

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders have made a big step forward with finally giving up on the JaMarcus Russell experiment and trading for Jason Campbell from the Redskins. There is no question that he’s an upgrade and should improve whole elements of the game. He’s not perfect, he holds onto the ball too long, and can stall drives in the redzone, but he’s better than Russell. Play-calling this year will be down to Hue Jackson, who’s come in from Baltimore.

Rolando McClain, drafted 8th overall this year, comes in and is the immediate leader on the defence. He needs to help stop the run. Nnamdi Asomugha remains one of the league’s premier corners, and a main reason why this team is so good against the pass (the other is that they’re so bad against the run!)

Coming of successive 5-11 records, they’ll look to to better. I’m not sure I can see it at this point though.

Denver Broncos

Whilst I’m looking forward to mercilessly booing the Broncos at Wembley, there are some intriguing stories to watch develop here. Knowshon Moreno had a great rookie season and was fun to watch, I’ll be hoping he doesn’t suffer the dreaded sophomore slump. Brandon Marshall is now out of town, so Eddie Royal and Demaryius Thomas will look to lead the line. Thomas was the first receiver taken in the 2010 NFL Draft and forms part of a promising young corp. Brandon Lloyd, a favourite of Kyle Orton at Chicago, will also look to hook up with his old quarterback.

Speaking of Orton… he posted his career best stats last season, better than Jay Cutler did in Chicago (much, I’m sure, to Josh McDaniel’s delight). However, he’s now got not only Brady Quinn behind him, but Tim Tebow. Nobody divides opinion quite like Tim Tebow, but common wisdom has him starting 2011 and he could well be used as a redzone impact player… though it’s not so clear which position he’d play! Regardless of those behind him, Orton will be looking to push on.

The Broncos were great against the pass last year, with only the Jets and Bills giving up fewer yards, but it was a different story against the run where they ranked 26th overall. A similar story to Oakland in that regard. Don Martindale moves from linebackers coach to DC and will have to work mainly with the same personnel he had last year.

After starting 6-0 last season and ranking up impressive wins on the way, the Broncos will think they should have done more than becoming only the 7th team since the merger to have such a start and then not make the play-offs. I can – just about – see them getting to 9-7 and being in play-off contention this year. Week 16 against the Texans could be a big game.

Kansas City Chiefs

The poor Chiefs. When a 4-12 record is a big step forward, you know it’s not been a good time.

Matt Cassel was the big signing for the 2009 season but in the end, you could easily make a case for Tyler Thigpen having a better season in 2008 than Cassel did in 2009. Chris Chambers, who came in last year off waivers, has signed a long-term deal and will start opposite Dwayne Bowe. One bright spot for the Chiefs was the emergence of Jamaal Charles at running back. Once Larry Johnson was released, he took over the major share of carries and gained a great YPC average and eventually became the first player in history to get 1,100 yards on fewer than 200 carries.

The story for the Chiefs this year is the big changes to the coaching staff. Pretty much the entire team will be coached by new faces this season, and how quickly adjustments are made will be telling this year for the Chiefs.

They may well improve, but I can’t see them making a big splash in the conference.

Predictions (made 18th July 2010)

Image Credit: Robert Sanque

Two divisions left to go, both in the AFC. The West, but first let’s take a look at the South.  Things didn’t happen in quite the way they were predicted last season. Judging by the number of Colts and Titans shirts we saw at Wembley last year, UK NFL fans would love to see some of these teams in London soon. But they’ll probably just have to hope for serious post-season runs for now…

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts looked so good all through the post-season that it looked like they were heading for another Superbowl. As we know, and despite what we here at MacTalksNFL thought, it wasn’t to be the case.

Going into the second year under Jim Caldwell, there’s no way this team won’t make the post-season. That’s a given, and the front office in Indy shows a lot of the league how things should be done. They’ll need more of that as it comes to getting a new deal in place for Peyton Manning in an uncapped season. What he gets will reverberate across the league, but it’s hard to imagine it becoming a real distraction: A deal will get done.

They ranked only 19th in defense last year. They’ve resigned some core components of this unit – like Melvin Bullitt, Gary Brackett and Antoine Bethea and also spent their first three draft picks to do better on this side of the ball.

Like I said above – they’ll make the playoffs. It’s the easiest call we get to make.

Houston Texans

We all love the Texans and really want them to do well. Last year they got close (again) but they didn’t quite make it (again). The sting of not making the play-offs will have hurt, but this young team did record their first winning season, continuing a steady trend of careful building and development over the last few years.

Finishing second though, has meant their schedule looks trickier than it might have done – not that this team will fear anyone, and the number 1 passing offence in particular will feel then can beat anyone through the air. Despite what coach Kubiak says, they probably don’t want to pass all the time. Steve Slaton was a fumble-machine last season, eventually losing his spot to Ryan Moats (and costing my Fantasy League glory too!). Moats is now with the Vikings, so Slaton will hope to get more chances even if the team is well stocked at running back after getting Ben Tate in the draft. How well they can adjust to new OC Rick Dennison will be the story of the first few games.

They will certainly need to improve in-division too. Their 1-5 record ultimately cost them – as the 7th ranked team in the AFC just one additional win would have got them safely into a wildcard spot. With three of those divisional losses being by 5 points or less, these games were winnable.

The defence was decidedly mid-table, and whilst it can improve it’s probably more important that they don’t regress. Like I mentioned above, this is a likeable young team with some real studs… but with a harder schedule, I don’t see them getting to 9-7 again.

Tennessee Titans

Talk about a season of two halves. The Titans opened up 2009 with six consecutive losses, putting them well and truly on the back foot. Coming back after their bye week, Vince Young started and the team started to follow him. The remaining 10 games saw only two losses to end the season a respectable (considering) 8-8.

Chris Johnson was a hero out of the backfield, becoming only the 6th player to run for 2000 yards in a season and also breaking Marshall Faulk’s yards from scrimmage record. Now he wants to be paid, and based on his form of the past two seasons it’s easy to see his case. Hopefully it’ll come together with him and the Titans before any hold out affects his play this year.

Knowing it was an area that needed help, the Titans spent 6 of their 9 draft picks on that side of the ball, including on Myron Rolle, who gives NFL UK fans a sort of home player to support.

This is a team that has played well in fits and starts over the last two years, and will be confident of being a real contender this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars

It’s been a difficult time for the Jaguars since they went 11-5 in 2007. A terrible 2008 looked like it might be put to bed until they finished 2009 with 4 consecutive losses for a final record of 7-9. Worse is that apart from hanging with the Dolphins, they were never really in any of those games. They also had television blackouts for 7 of their home games as various factors affected attendance and you wonder how that affects the players.

This is a team that wasn’t outright bad anywhere on the field, but need small improvements everywhere – something that can often be difficult to put right. However, Coach Del Rio obviously believes in the offence, and they’ve been left largely alone so far this off-season as he’s concentrated on strengthening the defence. Aaron Kampman comes in from Green Bay, and with the 10th overall pick the Jags took Tyson Alualu for two immediate upgrades to the D-Line. They also drafted another tackle, end and linebacker as well as trading for Kirk Morrison in Oakland, who has been a tackle machine in his last two seasons. There will definitely be an improvement with the front seven.

But this team will need luck as well as skill and talent. As with the Texans, I can’t see them getting to 9 wins but think that like last season they’ll hang in the division and can’t be ruled out if a couple of borderline games go their way.

Predictions (made 12th July 2010)

Image Credit: Kagilbert45

If he has problems, then I hope he gets help. If there was ever a man that needed good advice – JMR is the one. This may be a wake-up call for him and though I’ve been mean in the past, I wouldn’t wish him harm or trouble. And not just because he’s bigger than me. He’s done as a footballer, but hopefully not as a person.

We’ve still got our First Look series to finish, and will be taking a second (and final) look at each of the conferences before too long.

Stay tuned!

Being my first ‘Division’ prediction, ever, I figured I might as well do one for the division I know most about! The AFC North is usually an entertaining and exciting division. The matches are played well, and are usually close. Rivalry is fierce and the bouts are relentless. It’s always difficult predicting without seeing the four pre-season matches, but I’m going to give it a go.

Baltimore Ravens

I’ll try not to be too biased here. We’ve significantly strengthened this off-season, both in the draft and trades. Our offensive line is still as strong, our running game still has a 3-man attack and our defence is still a no-nonsense, hard-hitting gang with additions of massive monster players who I really look forward to seeing in purple (Sergio Kindle and Mount Cody). Joe Flacco will be the one to watch this coming season. He has more weapons than he has ever had, so in my opinion it is make or break for him. If, after this season, our passing game hasn’t improved then I think we need to analyse why that is. With Derek Mason, Anquan Boldin, Todd Heap, Ray Rice and Donte’ Stallworth to throw to we should be putting up big numbers. It’s an exciting time in Baltimore. We’re looking not only for the Divisional Title, but the Superbowl too.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals played some good football last season. I was impressed. Carson Palmer is an amazing quarterback on his day and I look forward to seeing him again this term. He has the added weapon of Antonio Bryant, which I think is a superb pick up for the Bengals. They also grabbed Jermaine Gresham in the draft, a definite prospect and one who could go straight into the starting line-up. They haven’t exactly weakened over the off-season so I’m expecting much of the same from the Bengals. They’ll prove a worthy foe

Cleveland Browns

The Browns started off the season as expected last term. They didn’t impress anybody. Harsh, but true. Nobody (except me it seems) predicted them to win any games towards the end of last season, but they seemed to settle and looked more established. Brady Quinn is released, Jake Delhomme comes in. Puzzling really. I always thought Quinn had potential. Colt McCoy is a good move in the draft though. He’s young and hungry, and could well find himself playing a part this season. I think I’d trust the rookie over Delhomme any day of the week!
Ben Watson comes in at tight end too. I think he will be a solid option on offence and I always did like him at New England. They have improved defensively and I’m looking forward to seeing Joe Haden playing. That said, I don’t think they have made the moves to rise up in the division and I still feel the other three teams are stronger.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Aaaah, the Steelers. I won’t say anything about the off-field issues; instead I’ll just get to the point. Santonio Holmes has left for pastures new (Jets) leaving Mike Wallace to fill the void he has left. Wallace did show signs of being a good target, but whether he can be as reliable as Holmes remains to be seen. Big Ben definitely misses the first 4 matches of the season, possibly first 6. A massive blow for the Steelers. Their star quarterback and one of their big receiving targets missing. For this reason I don’t think that Pittsburgh will be contending for the AFC North title. They have weakened whereas others have strengthened and it will be their downfall this season.

Predictions (made 14th June 2010)

Image Credit: Alan Bowser

We all know that predicting the divisions before the season has started can be, well, lets say – tricky! However, it is one of the things that we love doing and something that serves as a reference point for the changing fortunes of teams throughout the year. Oh, and more importantly means we can refer back to the awful predictions each other made as the year goes on!.

New England Patriots

We head in to the new season with the Patriots not looking as unbeatable as they have in recent years. In fact if we look at the bookies early odds for the Super Bowl they are sitting at 14, much higher than at this point last year. I hope Wes Welker continues his way back from injury or it leaves quarterback Tom Brady with fewer options.

The Patriots picked up some handy looking tight-ends in Anthony Hernandez and Ron Gronkowski that add dimension to the offense.

The schedule looks quite easy on them which may help mask the holes that they have, and lets face it you can never write them off. I am sure Pats’ fans are not too worried just yet.

New York Jets

Well, I thought the Jets were going to get off to a bad start last season and was proved wrong.  T-Rex seems to be able to get the best out of his players (I think I would try harder rather than face him off too) and while there is still rebuilding work to be done they did have a good run.

I don’t like the swap of Thomas Jones for LaDanian Tomlinson.  It might have made sense a while ago, but Jones was on great form and despite troubles his game will surely get better.  Jason Taylor will be lining up against the Dolphins in a Jets’ shirt and is a good steady force in an already good defence.  There were no real age issues evident last season and he should roll out another good performance this time around.  Mark Sanchez I am sure will settle now that he has some experience.

With their schedule there is a great chance of them making the play-offs again if they can hold it together.

Miami Dolphins

Last seasons’ Dolphins were a great team with holes in it.  Quarterback Chad Henne proved that with the experience of Pennigton in his ear he could make things happen.  There are few worries in my mind that he won’t be able to build on that this season.  That brings me to the signing of Brandon Marshall.  At last Henne can throw the ball with a hope that there is someone there to catch it!  Ok, too harsh, but Ted Ginn Jr dropped some important balls in some important games.  I really hope that they continue to make more of Davone Bess, as I think he has so much more to offer.

The addition of Mike Nolan as defensive co-ordinator and an OK schedule mean that there is a real race with the Jets this year.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills pulled off some good wins last season, but they are in tough company in the AFC East.  They have bought in some rookies which should improve the team, CJ Spiller and Alex Carrington being among them.

Trent Edwards needs to add a wider dimension to his game to keep hold of his position.  I get the feeling that there is more to come and hope that he shows it early on.

Really this is a building year; there is work to be done to take them up a notch.  That is not a bad thing though, building years for the Dolphins and Jets paid off and the same could happen here.

Summary

This is going to be close and tough.  There are three teams here which could take the AFC East title in my opinion and calling the finial standings is a long shot at the moment.

Predictions (made 10th June 2010)

Image Credit: Khaijg (again!)

With the average NFL career being less than four seasons, when someone’s spent 14 years they deserve a mention.

Muhsin Muhammad retired yesterday. He leaves the game ranked 20th on career receiving yards and having spent the vast majority of his year with one team, the Carolina Panthers. He was selected in the second round of the 1996 draft. This year’s second round pick – Jimmy Clausen – was just 8 back then.

Take care Moose, be well.

14 seasons you say? Isaac Bruce will see your 14 and raise you 2 additional season. Likewise the 20th career placing… Bruce is 3rd on the all time career yards and spent thirteen years with the Rams, helping them to Super Bowl victory for the 1999 season.

After two years a 49er, he retires a Ram. His club will honour him by retiring the number 80 in the game against Carolina later this year.

Again, be well.

Image Credit (Isaac Bruce): Jachdeja
Image Credit (Mushin Muhhamad): pnther60
Video Credit: LilMike1309

The run that the Saints went on took us by surprise. Indeed, from the pre- and off-season Graham and I both fancied the Panthers to be the err, big dogs of the division. As it happened, they were pussycats and the Saints went marching on and it’s now history. But enough of me murdering metaphors…

This NFC South has been particularly well balanced in recent years, with all four teams making the post season and each team has made the championship game and all but the Falcons made the Super Bowl since 2002. That could make things hard, but could make them fun too!

So let’s take a look…

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ah the Bucs. Our party to Wembley last year for the International Series game were all (except one, Ant!) Bucs for a day but it was hard to cheer them on as they never looked like winning that game. In the end the Pats won at a canter in a pretty one-sided affair. But like with all the teams we’ve had he privilige to see; who’ve made the effort to come to Wembley and put on a display for us, we do feel a certain attachment to them.

Josh Freeman gave the offense a little spark in the second half of the season and we’ll watch his development. Carnell “Cadillac” Williams was back after injury and also did well. Antonio Bryant was released to free agency and has joined the Bengals. The defense has been looked after in the draft, with Gerald McCoy as the 3rd overall pick being the big name here. The Bucs would use 6 of their 9 picks addressing the defense.

But it’s hard to look beyond this team as having anything more than a rebuilding season. I could easily see them doing worse than the 3 wins of 2009. I hope not, but it’s very possible.

New Orleans Saints

As reigning champions, the Saints will have both a natural swagger and a huge target on their backs. Whilst there’s no doubt that this team will put up serious points, they have many frailties on the other side of the ball to rectify if they want to repeat… a task which is a tough ask for any team.

However, expect the confidence to show. To beat this team you have to shut down the offense, and that’s not easy with the weapons they have. But there are still questions here: Can Darren Sharper, coming off knee surgery and 34, be as effective as he was last year. How will Reggie Bush, going into his 5th season, play? He had a poor 2009 and has never been the standout that was expected though he remains a threat catching out of the backfield. Will Drew Brees put up 2008 level numbers again, how will Jeremy Shockey be? Can the defence improve?

This is a team that pretty much everyone is pleased to see doing so well and I hope they can carry that form into 2010. For now, they’re the team to beat in the South.

Atlanta Falcons

It was a strange season for the Falcons. Although the posted a winning record, they only beat one team with a winning record (the Jets in week 15). A result that saw them eliminated from the post-season due to other results. Whenever they faced the ‘better’ teams they seemed wanting. And that’s despite Matt Ryan taking real strides forward in his sophomore season. Michael Turner had a disappointing season after his stand-out showing in 2008. But they remain a team to be wary of. Stats-wise, the offence was steady despite key injuries and the defence improved on 2008 but needs to improve further.

The Falcons play the Panthers in weeks 14 and 17. Those two games will likely be the difference for these teams. What in soccer would be called “six pointers”.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers were the disappointment of the division last season. Sure the Bucs were terrible, but we all expected that. The Panthers were just as bad considering they should have been contenders. As it happens, they lost key games early on and were always on the back foot. Whilst all the blame can’t be put on QB Jake Delhomme, a lot of it can. The experienced QB threw a career-high 18 interceptions on his way to posting the worst rating of his career… a career which will continue in Cleveland.

The Panthers will look to Matt Moore to take them forward, but were also lucky to get Jimmy Clausen as their first pick deep in the second round of the draft. Considered the most pro-ready of this year’s draft class, there’s a story there to watch. The Panthers will also need continued production from DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart who continue to look like the best running tandem in the league.

Defensively the Panthers were a good unit last year, and tweaks rather than mass changes are needed here. But this is a team defined by its offence. If they can click, move (and protect) the ball, then this will be a team to watch out for again.

Predictions (made 7th June 2010)
It’s very close between the Panthers and Falcons for me, but for now I can see the division shaping up the same way it did in 2009.

Thumbnail Credit: Khaijg