The AFC Would shape us as follows, ranked in descending order:

• Baltimore Ravens
• New York Jets
• Kansas City Chiefs
• Tennessee Titans
• Pittsburgh Steelers
• New England Patriots

There’s little doubt with the season just over halfway through that the AFC is generally stronger than the NFC and that list shows this very clearly. The Colts are also just a game away and can’t be ruled out either.

If there’s one team with a question mark there, it’s the Kansas City Chiefs. Although they’re atop the [relatively] weak AFC West, I’m not sure they can stay there all season. When you look at the teams they’ve played though, their schedule has worked strongly in their favour – they’ve played only one team of the twelve I have making the post-season here (the Colts) and they lost that. In this scenario, I think the Patriots would be more than happy to be heading to Kansas for Wildcard weekend.

The Ravens are for me the class of the NFL right now (Yeah, I’m expecting gloating from Craig) and having beaten the Steelers in Pittsburgh, there’s a big game coming in week 13 in the return match. If the Ravens go 2-0 over their closest divisional rival, they will probably be the top ranked AFC team come January. If not, then the Steelers could overhaul them and leave the #1 spot open for the Jets or Patriots.

The NFC:

• New York Giants
• Atlanta Falcons
• Green Bay Packers
• St. Louis Rams
• New Orleans Saints
• Philadelphia Eagles

If we ignore the Rams for the moment, there are no surprises here either. The South and the West are each sending two teams; the South are actually close to sending three teams and it’s hard to say that wouldn’t be fair at this point.

The Eagles have edged ahead of the Bucs after beating the Colts and they have the Redskins coming up. I’m man enough to admit that the ‘Skins don’t belong with the 6 teams listed but they’re managing to hang in there regardless. Monday night at FedEx Field should be a good game.

The Rams are the surprise here, but it’s a pleasant one. It’s not just Sam Brafdord (though he’s a big factor) but the whole attitude has changed in St. Louis. Much like Detroit, you have to bring your a-game now. However, like with the AFC, the West is in disarray. The Seahawks, despite some horrible losses, are at 4-4 like the Rams. The Cardinals (3-5) and even the 49ers (2-6) can’t be ruled out yet. It’s a close division, and unlike the South, it’s not close for the right reasons.

The Packers are hanging in there. Despite successive overtime losses (Redskins and Dolphins) and with plenty of injuries they’re still atop the North and remain very dangerous. The Giants are quietly going about their business with little fanfare, but their defense is again awesome and Manning-Nicks has developed into a killer combination.

The AFC might be stronger, but there are many interesting stories and sidebars to watch in the NFC too.

Two divisions left to go, both in the AFC. The West, but first let’s take a look at the South.  Things didn’t happen in quite the way they were predicted last season. Judging by the number of Colts and Titans shirts we saw at Wembley last year, UK NFL fans would love to see some of these teams in London soon. But they’ll probably just have to hope for serious post-season runs for now…

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts looked so good all through the post-season that it looked like they were heading for another Superbowl. As we know, and despite what we here at MacTalksNFL thought, it wasn’t to be the case.

Going into the second year under Jim Caldwell, there’s no way this team won’t make the post-season. That’s a given, and the front office in Indy shows a lot of the league how things should be done. They’ll need more of that as it comes to getting a new deal in place for Peyton Manning in an uncapped season. What he gets will reverberate across the league, but it’s hard to imagine it becoming a real distraction: A deal will get done.

They ranked only 19th in defense last year. They’ve resigned some core components of this unit – like Melvin Bullitt, Gary Brackett and Antoine Bethea and also spent their first three draft picks to do better on this side of the ball.

Like I said above – they’ll make the playoffs. It’s the easiest call we get to make.

Houston Texans

We all love the Texans and really want them to do well. Last year they got close (again) but they didn’t quite make it (again). The sting of not making the play-offs will have hurt, but this young team did record their first winning season, continuing a steady trend of careful building and development over the last few years.

Finishing second though, has meant their schedule looks trickier than it might have done – not that this team will fear anyone, and the number 1 passing offence in particular will feel then can beat anyone through the air. Despite what coach Kubiak says, they probably don’t want to pass all the time. Steve Slaton was a fumble-machine last season, eventually losing his spot to Ryan Moats (and costing my Fantasy League glory too!). Moats is now with the Vikings, so Slaton will hope to get more chances even if the team is well stocked at running back after getting Ben Tate in the draft. How well they can adjust to new OC Rick Dennison will be the story of the first few games.

They will certainly need to improve in-division too. Their 1-5 record ultimately cost them – as the 7th ranked team in the AFC just one additional win would have got them safely into a wildcard spot. With three of those divisional losses being by 5 points or less, these games were winnable.

The defence was decidedly mid-table, and whilst it can improve it’s probably more important that they don’t regress. Like I mentioned above, this is a likeable young team with some real studs… but with a harder schedule, I don’t see them getting to 9-7 again.

Tennessee Titans

Talk about a season of two halves. The Titans opened up 2009 with six consecutive losses, putting them well and truly on the back foot. Coming back after their bye week, Vince Young started and the team started to follow him. The remaining 10 games saw only two losses to end the season a respectable (considering) 8-8.

Chris Johnson was a hero out of the backfield, becoming only the 6th player to run for 2000 yards in a season and also breaking Marshall Faulk‘s yards from scrimmage record. Now he wants to be paid, and based on his form of the past two seasons it’s easy to see his case. Hopefully it’ll come together with him and the Titans before any hold out affects his play this year.

Knowing it was an area that needed help, the Titans spent 6 of their 9 draft picks on that side of the ball, including on Myron Rolle, who gives NFL UK fans a sort of home player to support.

This is a team that has played well in fits and starts over the last two years, and will be confident of being a real contender this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars

It’s been a difficult time for the Jaguars since they went 11-5 in 2007. A terrible 2008 looked like it might be put to bed until they finished 2009 with 4 consecutive losses for a final record of 7-9. Worse is that apart from hanging with the Dolphins, they were never really in any of those games. They also had television blackouts for 7 of their home games as various factors affected attendance and you wonder how that affects the players.

This is a team that wasn’t outright bad anywhere on the field, but need small improvements everywhere – something that can often be difficult to put right. However, Coach Del Rio obviously believes in the offence, and they’ve been left largely alone so far this off-season as he’s concentrated on strengthening the defence. Aaron Kampman comes in from Green Bay, and with the 10th overall pick the Jags took Tyson Alualu for two immediate upgrades to the D-Line. They also drafted another tackle, end and linebacker as well as trading for Kirk Morrison in Oakland, who has been a tackle machine in his last two seasons. There will definitely be an improvement with the front seven.

But this team will need luck as well as skill and talent. As with the Texans, I can’t see them getting to 9 wins but think that like last season they’ll hang in the division and can’t be ruled out if a couple of borderline games go their way.

Predictions (made 12th July 2010)

Image Credit: Kagilbert45

Has anything changed?


Ben Roethlisberger has a civil suit hanging over his head, though by most reports he’s not let it affect him and has shown considerable poise in being the leader of the team.

Hines Ward is sitting out practice. Not, you might think, to save injuries to any defensive backs, but because he’s earned it and can be trusted to be in shape come the pre-season. With Santonio Holmes hoping to reproduce his post-season form in the pre-season, it falls to those two to lead the receivers with Nate Washington plying his trade in Tenessee now.

Along with Washington, Bryant McFadden and Larry Foote are also playing in new cities (Arizona and Detroit) which is going to need to see some adjustment on the defense. On the brightside, they still have Mactalksnfl favourite Troy Polamalu tearing up the backfield.

As with any defending champions, they start the season with nothing to prove yet everything to lose. After their last championship, they went a disappointing 8-8 but will surely have learnt lessons from that.

Baltimore Ravens' QB Joe Flacco lets one go

Joe Flacco will go into his sophomore season entrenched as starter and will look to build on his fantastic first season that took the Ravens deep into the post-season. With a little bit more protection, he can do great things as long as he keeps his form up. Something that is by no means certain for a second-year QB.

The Ravens second place finish last year means that they have potentially tricky matchups against the Colts and Patriots on their schedule this year (The Steelers have the Dolphins and Titans) those will be all games to watch to see how they’ll affect the division table here.

I was initially tough on the Bengals’ receivers, then I changed my tune and it’s one of the main things I’m looking out for from training camp. If healthy and productive, they could be a real threat as long as the running game backs them up.

If Andre Smith and the team can sort a contract out, he could be an immediate starter at tackle. The longer a deal isn’t in place is going to affect his gametime early in the season.

There have been a number of changes on the defense, but nothing that shouldn’t be able to be catered for. That said, I don’t like the look of this unit – they were weak in 2008 and could easily be weak again.

A big factor when considering their finishing spot is that the Bengals have four of their last five games on the road. This will be a tough run and if they’re still in contention at that stage it will be an important sequence of games. I feel they’ve improved since my First Look – certainly on offense – but am leaving them projected at third spot for now.

The rebuilding is well under way in Cleveland, with ex-Jet’s coach Eric Mangini making his mark. He’s also delved deeply into the roster from his old club in an attempt to improve the team across the board.

The big story here is Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn in the quarterback battle. You’d hope that it would be settled as soon as possible, but with both guys putting up similar numbers last season I wouldn’t be surprised to see them sharing time through the early part of the pre-season. My money is on Quinn at this point.

With so much happening with the team, they’re tough to get behind as contenders.

Summary
Like I said before, the crunch match is in week 16 when the Ravens travel to Pittsburgh in a match that will probably decide the division (assuming that one of them has not fallen apart by then).

I do like what’s coming out of Cincinnati, but not enough to bump them at this point. So it’s no change so far.

[table id=7 /]

Refresh your memory with our First Look, and consider: Is there enough information to affect our predictions though?

The most obvious issue here is how is Tom Brady‘s knee. He says it’s good to go, but we’ll wonder about his mobility until we’ve seen proof it’s fine. There’s no reason to assume that mentally he won’t be ready, or that he’ll be rusty. This guy’s a pro, and he’ll bring it come camp and then gameday.
The Pats look to continue with running the ball by commitee, with a good variety of running styles ready to use. Whilst I’d like to see a ‘lead’ back, you have to expect that the coaches will use these guys wisely to get the best out of them.

Defensively, they’ll miss Mike Vrabel (now in Kansas) at Linebacker. And who can beleive that Teddy Bruschi is still playing? He surely hasn’t got 16 games in him. Shawn Springs comes in from Washington, and I’ve talked about him more here. As ever though, the Pats have drafted wisely and are slowly supplementing the squad with younger players to replace those who retire or move on.

Dolphins' quaterback Chad Pennington

They’re still the team to beat in the East, and arguably in the entire AFC.

The Dolphins aren’t doing much, but have made a few key acquisitions which should see them right. Jason Taylor is back at linebacker, and will backup an already strong unit that features everyone’s favourite wind-up merchants Joey Porter and Channing Crowder. Mactalksnfl favourite Will Allen will lead the corners, which includes two intriguing draft picks in Vontae Davis and Sean Smith (neither of whom have signed yet).

Chad Pennington will be looking to build on last year’s terrific performance and it’s really good to see him doing well after he was pretty shoddily treated by the Jets. The ‘Fins could use more depth at receiver, but Pennington will make the best of what he’s got.

This team has a tough schedule, and I can’t see them taking the division again. They’ll be a respectable second though.

The T.O camp is in town! The Bills’ training camp opened this weekend, but I’m not yet up to date with anything coming out of Rochester. Most people will be watching to see how Terrell Owens can contribute and how he’ll affect the team and players around him. On the other side, Lee Evans had a great year last year, and was a major deep threat – he must be pleased that there’s another real threat the opponent has to cater for.

The Bills were 0-6 in division last year, and that alone cost them a playoff place as they tumbled from 5-1 to 7-9. Getting results in the AFC East must be a priority for them this time: improving defensive output will be a factor towards that. Though a solid unit last year, they didn’t produce turnovers.

The Jets will have grumpy running backs Thomas Jones and Leon Washington in camp. They’ll either be motivated to earn the contracts that they want, or unhappy at the whole affair and therefore not productive.
There’s open competition at quarterback between Mark Sanchez and Kellen Clemens, and I’d have to fancy Sanchez to get the nod at this time, but the chances are we won’t know until the pre-season. Whoever it is, they’re going to need the backup receivers to step up to play with Cotchery.

I can’t put my finger on it, but I don’t fancy this team for much this year. It’s not as simple as the fallout from the Brett Favre experiment, but like I say… I can’t pin it down.

Summary
I still can’t look past the Pats here. But that’s with the assumption that Brady is fully fit and ready to go. If he’s not, or is injured again, then the Dolphins would look to capitalise.
The Bills are intriguing to say the least, but I’m waiting to see how things shape up out of their camp and early pre-season.

So as with so many other divisions… no change at this time.
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He’d barely been appointed 10 minutes when Josh McDaniels managed to alienate Jay Cutler to the tune of a deal to the Bears. I’m sure it was a more deep-rooted issue than that, but true or not, that’s the image the new coach has. Kyle Orton certainly isn’t an upgrade and QB, but he’s capable and wasn’t really given a good chance in Chicago. With a coach that beleives in him, and a system he can get behind he could be a surprise to many people this season.
However, with new systems on offense and defense and a lot of roster changes look like there could be a lot of settling in issues this season. That’s not to say the Broncos are set for success… they may be, but it’d be a braver man than me who’d say so today.

The Chiefs seem to have got away with very little bashing from most quarters, despite a disastrous season iin 2008. Obviously the Lions helped them out in taking a lot of attention, as did the nearby Rams.
Their big signing is Matt Cassell, who comes in fresh from his great season in New England. He’s still a risk, but the deal – which included Mike Vrabel – looks extremely good on paper. They’ve made a number of depth signings, but haven’t changed too much overall, looking to build on the team that in 2008 was improving all season. It’s worth noting that it was a young team last term – the youngest average age in the NFL – as their mammouth draft from 2008 bedded in and the team grew into its systems.
The comparative weakness of the division means they can’t be ruled out for a good run.

Oakland continue to stumble on, but aren’t a team I’m particularly familiar with. As with the Chiefs and Bronces, there is potential QB controversy here with JaMarcus Russell facing a make or break season. No-one would be surprised to see Jeff Garcia stepping up at some point, in fact some would say it’s a question of ‘when’ rather than ‘if’. I think that’s probably a but harsh, but no-one is ever surprised to see Jeff Garcia pop up as a starter.
Greg Ellis comes in a DE, but at 33 it remains to see if he can make a huge difference to a defensive unit that is pretty terrible. Nnamdi Asomugha at corner is probably the best CB in the league, but he’s pretty much alone back there.

Graham and I had the privilige to see the Chargers last year at Wembley, and whilst we spent most of the time jeering them, they’re a good unit and Rivers is an elite quarterback. LDT was also amazing to watch: the way he made space and ran. He 30 now, and that’s traditionaly a watershed time for running backs, but with Sproles to share the load with there’s no good reason to assume that he can’t be the threat we know him to be.
This is a strong unit overall, and one that can’t be counted out. Even at 4-4 last year, no-one reckoned them as an easy game – their off-season victory against the Colts proved that. There are questions about the team, but none big enough to think they won’t take the division again.

Summary
The AFC West is matched against the AFC North and NFC East, two strong divisions that could have some tough matchups.
I am pretty close to putting the Chiefs above the Broncos, but not quite. I’ll look at it again in 4 weeks or so, as I have them pretty close for now. Oakland to prop up the division, and I can’t see anyone touching the Chargers

[table id=8 /]

So… It’s easy to think of the AFC North as Pittsburgh’s division, but the Ravens and the Bengals have won it within the last five years, and the Browns… well, the Browns haven’t been so good but have made the playoffs this decade.

The reigning champs go into the season in bouyant mood, on the back of the Superbowl win and as AFC North winners for the last two years.
They’ve lost some players to free agency, but have drafted well. Bar one, the players that have left do not jump out as big losses: many have had injury problems or are fringe players at best. The ‘one’ is Bryant McFadden, who they’ll miss at corner. Keiwan Ratliff has been signed from the Colts and the Steelers have drafted at this position too. Someone will have to step up. However, McFadden aside, this is a team that has retained its core.

The Ravens did a good job last year, turning their record around from 2007 and mounting a strong playoff challenge: defeating the Dolphins and Titans on their way to the conference game.
Movers and shakers: Matt Stover has left, and I’ll miss him (in the fantasy game at least). Matt Birk comes in from the Vikings to shore up an O-Line that doesn’t really need a lot of shoring up. Last term they were a top 5 rushing team, and although they could do with getting the sack count a bit lower, it wasn’t at an alarming high by any means.

For the Ravens and Steelers, the crunch match is week 16 where the two team meet in Pittsburgh in a match that will probably be a divisional decider.

Dear oh dear oh dear. That pretty much sums up the Bengals for 2008.
No team is going to recover from a 0-8 start, and the Bengals did the sensible thing in letting Carson Palmer rest and heal up in preparation for the 2009 season. He’s announced he’s “100% ready” to go, and this team will live or die with his form. He has Laveranues Coles joining Chad Ochocinco at receiver… when fit and wanting to play, and five years ago… that’s a great pair. If they can both perform today remains to be seen but is an exciting prospect.
Chris Henry has been impressing so far in OTAs and if there was a player in ‘last chance saloon’ it’s Henry. He could be a factor… as could Cedric Benson. The former Bear had a steady season in 2008 with the Bengals and has now signed a two year contract. Like Henry, if he can keep his nose clean and play to potential this is a team that will be entertaining to watch.

The Browns started four different quarterbacks in 2008, watching each go down to various injuries. Consequently, their offensive performance was pretty bad – their overall record was better than only the Bengals, who were having similar problems.
The suspension of Donté Stallworth will hurt them at receiver, but they have a proven weapon in Braylon Edwards and if they can use Jamal Lewis wisely, then they can be competetive. Defensively, this wasn’t a bad unit; decidely mid-table, but not bad by any means.
Still, this season I see them propping the table up again, though improved on 2008.

Summary
It’s tough to call between the Steelers and the Ravens. These two teams are strong defensive units (ranked 1 and 2 overall last year) who can score when they need to and control the game. That the Bengals and the Browns have the two worst offensive records is an interesting side-note.

I’m going to go with my gut for now and give the Ravens the edge, with the Steelers making the playoffs as a wildcard. But I’ll follow both teams closely in the off-season.

3rd and 4th is a coinflip too, and I’m going with the Bengals at the moment.

[table id=7 /]

The Indiana Colts didn’t have a bad season last year (their 12-4 record hadn’t been beaten in the division’s history) and although Darren Sproles sunk them in the playoffs, it was a close game that – as ever – came down to a few key plays and was finally decided in OT.
This year sees a number of coaching changes, notably Tony Dungy has stepped down, and there has been word from the camp that all is not well in terms of organisation and message. This is a team to watch this off-season.

The Jags went 2-8 across the last 10 weeks of the season well and truly burying the early season optimism that wins at Denver and Indianapolis had given them. However you cut it, this was a bad year.
The off-season has seen the departure of Fred Taylor (to the Patriots) after 10 years of injury-prone but good service. Maurice Jones-Drew is “the man” this year, a steady progression after seeing his carries increase in each of the last three years.
There’s a lot to find out here yet. The team stats from last season are decidely mid-table on both sides of the ball… they don’t seem to have any urgent needs, but simply need an extra 10% right across the park. That’s a tough ask, and one of the main reasons why I have them propping the table up again.

I wouldn’t say the Titans were a surpise last year, as they had built up nicely from the two previous seasons. The winning streak was a surprise though, and helped them coast into the playoffs. Chris Johnson was a brilliant draft pick, and stormed to nearly 1500 all-purpose yards. Like with Matt Ryan though, a sophomore slump can’t be ruled out.
As things stand at QB, Kerry Collins will start and even today Vince Young is grumbling. Keeping a lid on his discontent might take up more time than he’s worth. Even if he is seen as the future leader of the team (and that’s by no means certain at this point) Collins is a proven leader and winner. He deserves his spot for now.
Draft-wise, it was a case of supplementing the existing team – and their 12 picks were evenly spread across the team. This is a strong unit, and even with a Haynesworth-sized hole in the defence, I can’t look past them for the division.

The Houstons remain the poor relative in this division, with not a single playoff appearance since the team came into the league in 2002. There have been signs of progress though, with two consecutive 8-8 seasons combined with them sending 3 players to the Pro-Bowl lat year and had Steve Slaton unfortunate to miss out too.
I can’t see too much progress being made, and think between 7 and 9 wins this year again and no playoffs again.

So there we are… I think the final positions will be the same as last season, though I could see the Colts in 1st or 3rd as much as 2nd.
[table id=6 /]

February 5, 2009. That was the day the Patriots told us that Brady would be back and ready to go for the start of the 2009 season, as they tagged Matt Cassel. He was traded later that month after a flurry of deals were offered.
The Pats were seriously unlucky to miss out on the post-season last year, missing tie-breakers twice by one game (Dolphins and Ravens). This year, you can expect Belicheck to put his marker down early and hard. This is a team that wants, even needs, the post-season. If Brady is healthy, then he’ll be hungry too.
They’ve made the usual steady free-agent and draft signings. Shawn Springs, in particular, will get two more games to keep Terrell Owens in his pocket… something he had considerable success with when they were both in the NFC East. (Caution, Redskins’ bias evident)

The Dolphins had a fantastic year last year. Not just with the Wild Cat, but their overall improvements all across the park. Pennington came to town with a lot to prove, and just all over the place they improved their game from the dismal 1-15 season before. This season, despite Pennington’s good showing last, it looks like the other Chad (Henne) will be starting behind centre. Henne has a good college record, but apparently scored just 21 on the Wonderlic. I don’t know much else about him, but will have to find out.
As division winners they have a tough schedule this year, and I can’t see them going into the post-season this season. One advantage is closing the season at home with what might be two of the easier games this season: The Texans and the Steelers in week 17.
(Graham is free to respond to this as he sees fit, of course!)

The Bills had a great start, but tailed off quite horribly. It’s a shame as they played some great football at times. Their big signing this year is T.O. Lining up with Lee Evans, they are going to be a real threat. They have let JP Losman go, which doesn’t seem like a great loss at this time but he did have some moments where he connected well with Lee Evans. I think most of us would agree that Trent Edwards, when fit, is a better player.
The Bills close the season playing the Pats, the Falcons and the Colts… 0-3 there will put an end to any post-season hopes they’ve got. Seriously though, who’d call anything other than 7-9 for the Bills again this year?

The Jets‘ gamble with Brett Favre didn’t pay off in the end as he, and they, simply ran out of steam last season. This year sees a new coach who has already boosted some players from the Ravens. Lito Shepperd has also come in, in an expensive move. Coles has left, and I think it was time for him to go (incidentally, Santana Moss for Coles a few years back looks like a great deal for the Redskins today).
QB for the Jets will be between Kellen Clemens and Mark Sanchez. Sanchez sure has style and charisma, but as with all rookies it’s an unknown how quickly he’ll become an NFL-calibre player. That same question could be put to Clemens too, as his 3-5 records is currently unremarkable though he’s shown promise in key situations. Still… too much of an unknown at this point.

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