New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday 23rd January, 11:30pm UK Time

It seems like a long time ago that Rex Ryan announced shortly into the first episode of Hard Knocks that the Jets were going to win the Super Bowl; that they were the best and this was the year. Now, going into the conference championship for the second consecutive season they’ll be hoping to get past the hurdle they fell at last year.

The Steelers started this season under a cloud of controversy and talk of their starting QB being traded. Coach Mike Tomlin kept the ship steady and really it’s no surprise to see the Steelers competing – again – in the Championship game.

Heinz Field

Apart from the game this season, these teams hadn’t met since 2007. A lot has happened since then, like the Steelers winning the Super Bowl in 2008 and the resurgence of the Jets under Rex Ryan. Let’s take a look at the last few meetings

Week 15, 2010: New York Jets 22 – 17 Pittsburgh Steelers

Mark Sanchez

The Jets were coming in off a two game losing streak and had really struggled against the Patriots and the Dolphins. The offence was spluttering and the defence had been ripped to shreds against the Patriots. A win here was vital for them, but the Steelers almost won it. Two incomplete passes from the 10 yard line finished the game, but it was a close one.

Despite the loss, this week saw the Steelers book their post-season place.

Week 11, 2007: Pittsburgh Steelers 16 – 19 New York Jets (OT)

This was one of precious few high points for the Jets, who went 4-12 this year. The Steelers made the post-season but were knocked out by the Jaguars in the wildcards.

Week 14, 2004: New York Jets 6 – 17 Pittsburgh Steelers

and

Divisional Round, 2004: New York Jets 17 – 20 Pittsburgh Steelers (OT)

Despite a close play-off game, it was New Yorks for the taking. But when Doug Brien missed two field goals at the end of regulation the game was sent to overtime and the Steelers moved the ball down the field and a field goal kept them moving. They’d be stopped in the Championship game by the Patriots (who went on to beat the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX.

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Offensively for the Jets, they’re going to have to rely on their running game to open things up for the pass. LaDanian Tomlinson and Shonne Green are a good pairing, the right combination for a one-two punch out of the backfield. But they’re up against the team who are by some margin the best at stopping the run.

As we’ve seen across his first two seasons, Mark Sanchez can blow hot and cold. He can be calm, composed and lead the team and he can just as readily turn in a complete shambles of a performance. There’s been talk that he’s still adjusting after coming out of college early, that he’s still young, etc., etc. But when he’s good, he can be very good. Even when bad, he can still turn up for the 4th quarter so we can’t rule him out even if he’s struggling throughout the game. This will be a big game for Santonio Holmes, who as we know was traded by the Steelers before this season started. After he served his suspension he’s been back and on great form. He’ll want to improve on his 6 catches for 40 yards that he got in the week 15 meeting here.

Troy Polamalu

The Steelers’ secondary has been occasionally exposed, but is by no means a weak unit. And of course they have the game changer called Troy Polamalu. Jets’ QB Mark Sanchez  said of Polamalu that he “…plays like his hair is on fire, and he’s got a lot of hair, so that’s a lot of fire”. He does, he’s all over the place and rarely does he make a misstep.

I spoke yesterday about Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams, that they’re the dominant corners in the league at the moment. I don’t rank Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie quite as highly, but they are no slouches either. And they’re coming off the performance against the Patriots who they completely shut down. Cromartie is the weaker of the two, though has the physical gifts to make plays. The Steelers have receivers that are more experienced, and probably more explosive, than the Patriots do though so the battle in the secondary is going to be great to watch. With the physical game of Hines Ward, the deep threat of Mike Wallace and the good hands of Heath Miller, Revis, Cromartie and the others could have their hands full.

There’s a lot to admire about the play of Ben Roethlisberger. He’s big and strong, he can extend the play as well as anyone else out there and he’s got a killer pump-fake. I expect that a lot of the game will be decided on the ground, but when Ben does step back expect to wait for the play to develop. On those plays the Jets will hope to get to him like they managed with Tom Brady last week, and Bart Scott will be as dangerous as he ever is. But I think they’ll have a harder time getting to Roethlisberger.

This is a very difficult game to call. The Jets have momentum and a self-confidence (or arrogance, if you’d prefer) that means they’re going in expecting to win. The Steelers are proven winners and have more experience across the field, but they’re capable of making huge mistakes as we saw in last week’s first-half.  This one is practically a coin-flip for me.

Though I like the narrative of the Jets going into this game, ultimately I think the Steelers are better. It’ll come down to a couple of key plays, and it’ll be close, but the Steelers will get it done.

Graham Says:

I went with the Jets last weekend as I just think they are riding a wave of luck on a skill surfboard.  After knocking the highly fancied Pats out of the running they must also now have an unshakable belief that they can do it.

Some would say the Steelers present more of a challenge than the Patriots did, but I think we will see the Jets in the Super bowl this year.

Ben Roethlisberger

Craig Says:

This weekend will see two dominant defences face-off to settle the AFC Conference championship. The Jets take on the Steelers in what could be a gruelling encounter. The Steelers get through to the final after doing enough to clinch their division (by a divisional record of +1) resulting in a bye week, and then victory over the Ravens last week which I’m still bitter about. A collapse by the Ravens offence during the entire third quarter allowed the Steelers defence (who it has to be said, played out of their skins) to cause 3 turnovers and peg back the 14 point deficit from the previous half.

The Jets got through the Wildcard round beating the Colts AND then the Patriots, both on the road too. That in itself is impressive. Rex Ryan is obviously confident with his teams ability considering all the talking he’s been doing as of late, I just can’t help but think that it might come back and bite him in the ass.

The Steelers need to be respected, so in the build up to the game it will be interesting to see how it all unfolds. Obviously the trash talking with the Patriots was due to a massive rivalry between the two, but Ryan does love his mind games. If the Steelers play like they did in the second half last week then I can’t see them being beaten. The Jets were impressive against New England though.. It’s a tough one to call.

I can honestly see this heading into overtime and being won on a Field Goal. My gut is saying Jets win.

Image Credits:
Heinz Field – Natalie Litz
Mark Sanchez – TexKap
Troy Polamalu – Andy emcee
Ben Roethliserger – Alex Abboud

Talk about the meeting of two frustrating teams!

Here at mactalksnfl.co.uk I think we all want the Houston Texans to do well – they’re a team that’s easy to root for and are particularly impressive offensively. But they’re as infuriating as a team can be in terms of consistency. Beating the Colts on opening weekend? Fantastic. Going down heavily to the Cowboys and Giants… not so much.

Reliant Stadium

Matt Schaub's QB Rating - 2010 to Date

The AFC South is an incredibly competitive division at the moment, and could easily send two or even three teams into the post-season. Although they came so very close last year, the Texans have never made it out of the regular season and their maddening inconsistency is a factor. Pick any player and see how their stats rise and fall across the season – Matt Schaub is the perfect example of this, his rating looks like the Alps.

Arian Foster has also had bad weeks, but there has been much more – and higher quality – action on the ground this year. Last year the Texans ranked 30th in yards on the ground. So far this season they’re a top 10 running team (though admittedly about a 3rd of their total has in two games against the Colts). No team wants to be one-dimensional, and this will pay off as the season progresses.

The Chargers’ GM AJ Smith took a stand in the off-season and has let players go or refused to offer them more than tenders, and it has cost the team in the short term. LDT was released, and as many have said, he’s having something of an Indian Summer for the Jets. Ditto Antonio Cromartie. Vincent Jackson has been holding out (though has now reported to accrue time towards full free agency). Shawn Merriman was on IR and has now been waived (and will be a Bill the next time he takes the field). This left them short, it left them wanting.

The result – to this point – is a 3-5 record and 3rd place in the AFC West, a division which they usually own. They won’t be worried, not yet, as they’ve come back from 3-5 before and still won the division and I think most of us would – when looking at the division – pick the Chargers as the strongest team, though the gap is closing. They’ve also got 4 divisional games left to go (though admittedly they’ve lost the only two they’ve played so far). But they need to step up and take control again. They’re missing the players that have moved on, and not seeing Next Man Up pay-off like it is for the Colts, for example.

This is a difficult game to predict, and as you’ll see from our predictions for the week I’m the only one that doesn’t side with the Chargers here. I think the Texans have enough to get past a Chargers side which is spluttering a fair bit right now.

Texans to record a narrow win.

Image Credit
Reliant Stadium – Laurie

Graph created at NCES Kids Zone

Nate Burleson to the Lions. This is either a stroke of genius or a real stretch, but Stafford needs receiving options. They’ve also added Kyle Vanden Bosch to their defensive line.

Karlos Dansby is now a Dolphin. Miami have made several changes already on the defensive side but Dansby would be a good addition in any case. They’ve also signed Chad Pennington for another year who is a good option as a backup.

In New York, the Jets and Giants have both improved their secondaries with Antrel Rolle joining the Giants and Antonio Cromartie heading to the Jets. Rolle becomes the highest paid safety in NFL history in the process.

The Ravens have signed Anquan Boldin, adding much needed depth to their passing game.

But Off-Season Champions so far (the ‘Skins haven’t got going yet ) are the Bears, who are making waves like they did last year. As well as snagging Julius Peppers to a monster contract, they’ve picked up Chester Taylor and Brandon Manumaleuna.

A number of teams have resigned players and made tenders, and we’ll be watching what happens with a lot of those. A good number have also been released and we’ll be talking about them seperately later on.

In 2-3 weeks’ time, we’ll take a final look before setting our season predictions in stone (for future gloating and/or ridiculing).

Josh McDaniels has been running a tough camp. It remains to be seen if that’s the right way to motivate the players as in other places, players haven’t responded to it.

Kyle Orton will be wanting to shine, but has already had some boos and catcalls from the watching fans. He’ll be looking to get motivated from that. Brandon Marshall is sitting out with an injury at the moment, and don’t forget he has a court appearance coming up soon too. He could yet see a second suspension. In his absense Brandon Stokley has been stepping up. The veteran goes into what could easily be his final season and is surely looking to make an impact.

Rookies Knowshon Moreno and Roberts Ayers have signed and are in camp. I’ll keep an eye on these guys, Moreno in particular, to see how they shape up.

This is a difficult team to predict, but it would take a brave call to have them moving forward from last season.

Another coach who’s running a tough camp is Todd Haley at Kansas. The players there are getting put thoroughly through their paces an no-one is a guaranteed starter (well, he says that but we all know some players are).

Matt Cassel – assuming he’s the starter of course, not much of a stretch – will have Armani Toomer to add depth at reciever. He and Bobby Engrams being the old men here. Dwayne Bowe will be wanting to build on his 1,000 yard season in 2008. Here’s hoping he can hold onto the ball.

There are a few injuries across the defense, but nothing too alarming at this point. It remains to be seen how they adjust to the 3-4 scheme, something that should become clearer during the pre-season.

Haley apparently isn’t afraid of upsetting anyone, or selecting starters based on previous form. This all makes for Kansas City to be a story worth following this year. But not, I expect, into the post-season.

I was hoping to get all the Second Looks out before the pre-season started, but that’s not happened. Accordingly, some of my harsh words about the Raiders have been tuned down a little bit after they looked sharp against Dallas last night.

Oakland open the season with three back-to-back divisional games. So their season could effectively be over at week 4. But perhaps I’m being unfair. Darrius Heywood-Bey has settled in well after the usual rookie adjustment period. He could really do with having Javon Walker on the field as well, he’s currently injured, as if the Dallas game is any indication he’s being treated as a real threat and covered accordingly.

Chaz Schilens got a lot of looks from JaMarcus Russell and could be worth bearing in mind for those in deep fantasy leagues.

Perennial backup QB Jeff Garcia has been injured, likely pushing Charlie Frye towards the number 2 spot. Garcia can never be counted on to not make an appearance at some point during the season though.

In short though, and despite last night’s showing, I still don’t see much I like here. Certainly nothing to make me think this is a team making huge strides forward.

I don’t really know what to say about the Chargers. To me, they’re so obviously head and shoulders above the rest of the division it’s almost unfair.

On top of that, it seems the biggest news coming from their camp is that Antonio Cromartie doesn’t rate the food. With Quentin Jammer on the other side, if Cromartie is fit (and gets a good meal) this is a corner pairing as good as any across the league.

Darren Sproles and his new contract will be one to watch. With LaDanian Tomlinson now ‘getting on’ (in running back terms) and, it seems, notoriously absent in the post-season, it’ll be interesting to see how the backfield shakes up. One thing’s for sure – most coaches would love to have these two guys to call on.

Summary
I can’t look past San Diego here at all. Second place to be tight between the Chiefs and the Broncos, but neither to make the post-season.

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