The run that the Saints went on took us by surprise. Indeed, from the pre- and off-season Graham and I both fancied the Panthers to be the err, big dogs of the division. As it happened, they were pussycats and the Saints went marching on and it’s now history. But enough of me murdering metaphors…

This NFC South has been particularly well balanced in recent years, with all four teams making the post season and each team has made the championship game and all but the Falcons made the Super Bowl since 2002. That could make things hard, but could make them fun too!

So let’s take a look…

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ah the Bucs. Our party to Wembley last year for the International Series game were all (except one, Ant!) Bucs for a day but it was hard to cheer them on as they never looked like winning that game. In the end the Pats won at a canter in a pretty one-sided affair. But like with all the teams we’ve had he privilige to see; who’ve made the effort to come to Wembley and put on a display for us, we do feel a certain attachment to them.

Josh Freeman gave the offense a little spark in the second half of the season and we’ll watch his development. Carnell “Cadillac” Williams was back after injury and also did well. Antonio Bryant was released to free agency and has joined the Bengals. The defense has been looked after in the draft, with Gerald McCoy as the 3rd overall pick being the big name here. The Bucs would use 6 of their 9 picks addressing the defense.

But it’s hard to look beyond this team as having anything more than a rebuilding season. I could easily see them doing worse than the 3 wins of 2009. I hope not, but it’s very possible.

New Orleans Saints

As reigning champions, the Saints will have both a natural swagger and a huge target on their backs. Whilst there’s no doubt that this team will put up serious points, they have many frailties on the other side of the ball to rectify if they want to repeat… a task which is a tough ask for any team.

However, expect the confidence to show. To beat this team you have to shut down the offense, and that’s not easy with the weapons they have. But there are still questions here: Can Darren Sharper, coming off knee surgery and 34, be as effective as he was last year. How will Reggie Bush, going into his 5th season, play? He had a poor 2009 and has never been the standout that was expected though he remains a threat catching out of the backfield. Will Drew Brees put up 2008 level numbers again, how will Jeremy Shockey be? Can the defence improve?

This is a team that pretty much everyone is pleased to see doing so well and I hope they can carry that form into 2010. For now, they’re the team to beat in the South.

Atlanta Falcons

It was a strange season for the Falcons. Although the posted a winning record, they only beat one team with a winning record (the Jets in week 15). A result that saw them eliminated from the post-season due to other results. Whenever they faced the ‘better’ teams they seemed wanting. And that’s despite Matt Ryan taking real strides forward in his sophomore season. Michael Turner had a disappointing season after his stand-out showing in 2008. But they remain a team to be wary of. Stats-wise, the offence was steady despite key injuries and the defence improved on 2008 but needs to improve further.

The Falcons play the Panthers in weeks 14 and 17. Those two games will likely be the difference for these teams. What in soccer would be called “six pointers”.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers were the disappointment of the division last season. Sure the Bucs were terrible, but we all expected that. The Panthers were just as bad considering they should have been contenders. As it happens, they lost key games early on and were always on the back foot. Whilst all the blame can’t be put on QB Jake Delhomme, a lot of it can. The experienced QB threw a career-high 18 interceptions on his way to posting the worst rating of his career… a career which will continue in Cleveland.

The Panthers will look to Matt Moore to take them forward, but were also lucky to get Jimmy Clausen as their first pick deep in the second round of the draft. Considered the most pro-ready of this year’s draft class, there’s a story there to watch. The Panthers will also need continued production from DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart who continue to look like the best running tandem in the league.

Defensively the Panthers were a good unit last year, and tweaks rather than mass changes are needed here. But this is a team defined by its offence. If they can click, move (and protect) the ball, then this will be a team to watch out for again.

Predictions (made 7th June 2010)
It’s very close between the Panthers and Falcons for me, but for now I can see the division shaping up the same way it did in 2009.

Thumbnail Credit: Khaijg

To start with we’re back to New York. Less than a week after releasing Thomas Jones (who has since signed with the Cheifs) the Jets have added LaDanian Tomlinson to the line-up. He’s got a fair deal to be a backup and although I think Jones was a better option, they’ve got LDT for a lot less than Jones was due. It would essentially be a crime not to use this as an excuse to post Electric Glide as unlike running backs that never gets old.

Carrying on with aging running backs, Larry Johnson is now a Redskin. He’s signed a surprisingly sensible 3 year deal that makes things interesting and has certainly improved the squad. If we can sort the line out, we might be able to actually make some yards now. Will Montgomery has resigned in this area.
Johnson has 2 years on Portis, but considerably less mileage. Hopefully he can contribute.

It’s all change under centre for the Cleveland Browns with Anderson being released and fan-favourite Brady Quinn being traded to the Denver. I’ve seen Broncos’ starting QB Kyle Orton described as “workmanlike” and that seems fair. It’ll be interesting to watch that situation and take bets on who’ll be starting the Wembley game.

Incoming for the Browns are Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace. The smart money would be on Delhomme to start, even after his terrible 2009. He’s due a tonne of cash too, from the Browns and Panthers who apparently missed a fairly critical clause in his contract. D’oh.

Mark Tauscher has signed – again – in Green Bay. Expect to see him picking up Aaron Rodgers a lot during 2010. Speaking of Aarons… Aaron Kampman has gone to Jacksonville in what is a better fit for him than the Packers’ 3-4 scheme.

This is the tip of the iceberg as there have been moves and trades all over the place. Check ‘em out.

These are based on what we’ve been watching, what we’ve been following, some blind faith and our guts. These are are our predictions for the 12 post-season teams of the 2009 season.

This topic and tables will be locked and not edited once it is published. It will then be used for mocking, gloating, fighting (and probably crying) throughout the course of the season. We’ll come back to this every few weeks to carry out at least one of the above acts.

Andrew’s Predictions

NFC
If you’ve been following my First and Second look articles, then there shouldn’t be any surprises here.

In the NFC, I have the Giants topping the east. I’m hoping that the Redskins can surprise me here and edge a playoff spot, but I don’t really see it. In the west, I’m calling Seattle after a lot of deliberation. I’m also giving a wildcard spot to the Arizona Cardinals, in one of the divisions I’ve struggled with the most. The North is just as bad, I’m going with Green Bay. I’d really have liked longer to make a call on the Vikings’ prospects but here we are…

Finally from one of the hardest to one of the easiest: The Panthers to win in the south.

The final NFC wildcard is very tricky. It’s between the Falcons and the Eagles and as much as I hate to go against the Falcons, I can’t see the NFC East not sending at least two teams. So I’m going with the Eagles.

AFC
Things are easier in the AFC. A little bit, anyway – I see all four divisions as two-horse races

The Pats to take win the AFC East. I’m taking a gamble here (of a sort) that Brady is back to something like his best, but I’m confident with it. I see the Titans edging out the Colts in the south, though I’m putting the Colts in the wildcard mix and they can never be counted out.

The north will see the Ravens as winners, beating the Steelers into second – this will be a close division though. Finally the west will crown the Chargers, because… well, because there’s really no-one else there who can mount a serious challenge.

The wildcard spot is a three-way battle (sorry Denver) between the Steelers, Dolphins and Colts. Like last year, I see a valiant AFC East team being left out – the Steelers and the Colts going into the post-season. I’m sorry Graham, I don’t see the Dolphins there… but at least the ‘Skins won’t be there either!
I wish there was room for the Texans, but I don’t see it this year.

Graham on Andrew’s Predictions…
Not much to disagree with here (other than the Dolphins not making the play offs). I have gone with some different choices, but it is difficult to predict at this early stage.  It will be interesting to see what our readers think, I am sure there are a few who could beat us hands down.

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Graham’s Predictions

NFC
In the East I can see the Dallas Cowboys being bouyed by their new home and looking for a good season to overcome the tragic events at their practice facility. Can they beat the NY Giants in the NFC East? Well I don’t think so, but I do see them taking one of the wildcard spots.

Heading to the North I am going with the Green Bay Packers.  I also think the arrival of Jay Cutler at the Bears will bring some improvement, but not enough for a wildcard.

In the south I have to agree with Andrew on the Panthers.  I am hoping for a good season from Tampa Bay though as I am hoping for a great game at Wembley Stadium this year.  It is a Bucs’ home game so – sorry Pats fans – I will be supporting them.

Finally to the NFC West.  I am going with Arizona.  I am looking for some 49ers improvement this season and was tempted to pick them as my second wildcard, but I think it will be out of reach this time.

With the above in mind, my second wildcard pick goes to the Atlanta Falcons.

AFC
Starting in the East, I am going to upset Pats fans again here.  I would agree that Tom Brady is the best, but he is not Superman.  A year off will leave him hungry but maybe a bit rusty.  Miami will be looking to build on last years amazing improvement and now have a team strong enough to do even more damage.  Yes they have a tough schedule, but I still see them taking the AFC East again with the Pats in a wildcard spot.

In the North I am also going with the Ravens. I also think the South will be as Andrew predicted with the Titans winning and the Colts taking the second wildcard.

In the West the Raiders should storm it… only joking. Sadly I can see the Raiders taking the Lions’ place as also-rans this season, things seem far from settled in Oakland.  The Chargers should wrap the West up without too much trouble.

Andrew on Graham’s Predictions…
I think you’re letting your heart rule your head re: Miami and I think the Steelers won’t make the mistakes of a few years ago and will be in the post-season in some way.

I’m glad you’ve picked Atlanta though. I only just left them out

I have Dallas battling the Washington for 3rd place in the NFC East too, so I’m not sure about that. Otherwise it’s hard to argue with your picks. Like you said: I bet there are readers who could beat us. They should be writing these articles!

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In the QB battles…

Matthew Stafford struggled against Cleveland, being out-performed by Daunte Culpepper and also by Drew Stanton. On the other side of the field, Derek Anderson was given more attempts and moved the ball well but threw an interception. Brady Quinn only had a handful of attempts, so it’s hard to judge him.

So Culpepper moves in front in Detroit, but probably still too early to call in Cleveland yet.

The Indianapolis Colts did well against an under-strength Eagles. The question of how they’d adjust to the coaching changes seems to be being answered with “Just fine, thanks.”

Matt Cassel looked like a starter again against the Vikings, but most people were watching for another new QB: Brett Favre didn’t play much, but just seeing him in purple was strange. Tarvaris Jackson had a great game, and with rumours circulating that he could be released he reminded everyone out there that sometimes, he’s a decent option.

Elsewhere…

Miami looked good all around against the Carolina Panthers too. Our favourites Ronnie Brown and DeAngelo Williams both did well.

San Diego looked very good against the Cardinals, besting them on both sides of the ball. Of course it’s hard to read too much into these games, but our predictions looked true from this game. The same could apply to the Seahawks who also looked very nice against the Broncos. Kyle Orton looked better – a lot better – than he did last week. So did Jay Cutler in his Soldier Field debut.

The Redskins looked better, but still not great. The 17-13 win over the Steelers papers over the cracks a bit but still… no panic yet.

Chad Ochocinco is the star this week. The frankly bonkers receiver performed some kicking duties this week against the Patriots. He converted a PAT, and also kick-off that went at least a par distance. Watch it at nfl.com.

It’s great to see him enjoying himself.

We reiterate that these are some of our favourite players. We can’t vouch that these will be the best players in absolute terms, have the biggest fantasy football upside or even be any good (though they might be)… but they’re players that we like to watch.

DeAngelo Williams of the Carolina Panthers gets the call this week.

Williams holds a host of college records, including the most all-purpose yards in NCAA history and was strongly thought of heading into the 2006 draft. However, in a class that held Reggie Bush, LenDale White and Joseph Addai (among others) he fell to 27th in the first round where he was snapped up by the Panthers.

Williams escapes Ronde Barber

In 2008, his carries almost doubled from 2007 and his yards per carry rose from an already impressive 5.0 to 5.5 yards per carry. He finished out the season with over 1,500 yards and 18 touchdowns. More than that, he established a formidable partnership with Stewart, who also put up over 800 yards and 10 TDs. This was the running back duo of last season, and they’ll be looking to build on that in the 2009 NFL Season.

I’d been keeping an eye on him all season, interested to see how he’d cope not just as the starter but with a highly rated rookie behind him. He didn’t disappoint at all, and as the season went on he got better and better. In week 15, he blasted through the Broncos line for a 56 yard sprint for a touchdown. He started off heading left, then came back and was gone. The speed was amazing for that time of the season.

But his most impressive stat of all: no fumbles in 2008. In fact, in over 500 carries in his NFL career so far he’s only fumbled twice, and lost the ball once. That’s the stuff of dreams for a coach.

I fancy the Panthers this year to win the NFC South, and Williams will be a big part of that. If he’s healthy, then he’ll beat Foster’s mark to become the all-time Panthers rushing leader. There are a number of factors in which games I’ll watch each week, but the Panthers’ running game in general, and DeAngelo Williams in particular, makes me want to watch them.

Previous Favourite Running Backs
Steve Slaton
Ronnie Brown

Well, there have been a whole load of injuries… here are just some that could have wider impact.

Note that this update does not cover the four games that took place on the 13th August.

Rams’ wideout Donnie Avery is out for up to 6 weeks with a fracture in his foot. He’ll probably miss the games at the Seahawks and the Redskins. As their presumed #1 receiver, that could hurt them in a couple of difficult road games. The Rams beat the ‘Skins last year, largely on the back of thier mid-season coaching change. So I’m pleased to see them weakened even a little.

Steve Smith has a shoulder injury which will keep him out a little while. Bad news for the Panthers, who’ll be hoping it’s not too long. Another injured receiver is Antonio Bryant of the London-bound Bucs. He’s due to miss the whole of the pre-season, but hopes to be ready for week one. If he misses that game against the Eagles, then the week two divisional matchup with the Falcons is a good target.

Speaking of the Falcons… Roddy White is back and training after a short holdout for a new contract. And, oh my, he’s getting paid a fair whack to be Matt Ryan‘s main target. Even missing 8 days, you’d have to think he’ll be up to speed and raring to go.

Tarvaris Jackson is back with the Vikings after an injury forced him to sit out for a few days. That might affect his competition with Sage Rosenfels. I’ve also realised that I’ve been spelling his first name wrong for a while now… I think I’ve got it sorted now though.

Dallas Clark is still suffering with a concussion, so will rest up as needed in the pre-season. Expect to see him raring to go come the regular season. With him out and Marvin Harrison not about the Colts need a receiver to step up to support Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzales.

The Saints are looking to add a veteran linebacker or two: Derrick Brooks and Derek Smith both have work outs this week. Mark Simoneau is heading for surgery, so if one of them gets a spot they could be giving depth that he can’t anymore.

Texans’ rookie linebacker (and announced starter) Brian Cushing is also due to miss some games. Gary Kubiak has shown some skill with protecting rookie players and getting most out of them. We expect the same here.

There have been five pre-season games now, and a whole load more are happening this weekend. We’ll take another look at who’s doing well or got injured once those are out of the way.

The biggest concern the Panthers have this off-season is their cap space. With Peppers signed to a short-term franchsie-value contract, they have no money to spend anywhere else. If they can’t sort him out to something longer term, then they are going to struggle to provide depth where it is needed. The time is running out for a deal (15th July) so watch this space.

This division will surely be settled between these two teams.

The Bucs have released backup Brian Griese to make room for 3rd round pick Roy Miller (DT). Josh Freeman, their first round pick and presumed future QB, is still unsigned. Meaning that Brian Leftwich is the most likely starter, unless Luke McCown can show something during preseason.

The coaches will also be hoping that a happy Kellen Winslow is a productive Kellen Winslow, and there are signs that rookie WR Sammie Stroughter could play a part too… I feel better about the Bucs than I did earlier in the year: A strong performance in-division and they could move into 3rd. I’ll be watching.

The Falcons are looking to expand on their passing game this term – to progress Matt Ryan and to protect Michael Turner – and Tony Gonzales will surely look to play a part in any passing game.

As with last season there’s a fair bit of competition in the backfield, and Brent Grimes in particular, will be looking to get his CB starting place back. The Falcons’ training camp opens soon, and we’ll have to watch what comes out of there, but there’s not much right now to make me change my mind.

The Saints haven’t signed any of their draft picks yet, but typically they wrap that up quick. One pick already impressing is CB Malcolm Jenkins who will look to get some appearances sooner rather than later.

A result of the Panthers‘ lack of cap space has let the Saints pick up long snapper Jason Kyle, who could be a valuable, if under-appreciated, addition to the special teams. Gregg Williams is also mixing up the D, moving players about and generally making his presence felt. He’s been a bit hit and miss over the last few years, but there’s no doubting his credentials. I expect this unit to firm up as he gets the best out of the players he’s got.

Summary
No change… just. The Panthers have fallen a little and the Bucs risen, but not enough to make me update this table yet.
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He’s 29 now, and I’m sure wanted a longer deal. But with one of the largest single-season paychecks coming his way, he can’t be that unhappy.
I said back in my first look at the NFC South that the Panthers needed to avoid too much drama here, and it looks like that’s mission accomplished. They get their major threat at DE back for another year, and he’ll surely be hungry with the prospect of a longer term contract (in Carolina or elsewhere) being offered no further than 8 months away.

The Panthers look strong again. If they can avoid too much drama with Peppers then the D is going to be one to watch with Ron Meeks as the new coordinator. Offensively it’s largely as you were, and they’re a talented bunch. I’d put them up as a serious contender. It’s hard to look beyond them as divisional champions. The Falcons could run them close again, but not close enough.

The Bucs are facing a tough season because of how the schedule plays out. They have a very tough first half of the season, including a “home” game in London. I always like to cheer the nominal home team but I think they’re going to get turned over something terrible by the Pats. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bucs leaving Wembley and heading to their bye with a 2-5 record.

The Falcons were a bit of a surprise package last year. Firstly Michael Turner started to look like a game-winning back and then Matt Ryan was… well, he was impressive. But hands up who’d be surprised at a sophomore slump for last season’s Rookie Of The Year? Their offense hasn’t changed much from last season, but the D has. Last year was a solid “bend but don’t break” unit (24th in yards allowed but 10th in points) and it’ll be interesting to watch how they start the season.

I loved seeing the Saints last year, and there are still 3 ‘Be A Saint’ flags kicking around the house. Brees was on awesome form last year, and it was fantastic to see a QB as good as he was in action. Despite that, they fell short of post-season with a disappointing 8-8. This year, I can possibly see them improving on that… slightly. A Wild Card spot is a possibility, but not a strong one.

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