There are no easy divisions to predict but the NFC North is one of the toughest. Last year neither Graham or I saw the Vikings being as good as they turned out to be. Neither of us saw the North sending two teams into the post-season either but it turned out to be the case. Although we all called the Lions to prop up, the Bears were a disappointment and again caused us to get it wrong.

Let’s take an early look ahead to the 2010 NFL season…

Minnesota Vikings

The season was over for the Vikes for approximately 14 second before the questions and pantomime around Brett Favre started again: Will he be back or not? As he’s opted for surgery on his ankle suggests that he wants to be back next year. By getting the surgery early he’s giving himself the best possible chance of being ready, should he decide that’s what he wants. To his credit Tavaris Jackson is being a real professional and simply carrying on regardless but I don’t think anyone would state that the Vikings wouldn’t miss Favre if he doesn’t return.
And that’s all I’ll talk about him until we get a “Yes” or “No” from the man. Sometime in late July, I guess.

To support the running game, they drafted Stanford star Toby Gerhart. Gerhart split coaches and scouting opinions right down the middle in the build-up to the draft but I like the look of him. Sitting behind Adrian Peterson is a good spot for him right now and a good fit for the team. The 6th ranked defense was also boosted with the drafting of Back Chris Cook as their first pick and End Everson Griffen as their third.

This team was so very close to the Superbowl last year and they should be real contenders again.

Green Bay Packers

Quarterback (and Mac favourite!) Aaron Rodgers had a great year despite being sacked freely by every team they faced. Bryan Bulaga was drafted to give depth at tackle to try and protect Rodgers. The Pack really got going the second half of last season and lost only twice from week 10 onwards: by 1 point to the Steelers and in overtime in a playoff shootout against the Cardinals in the Wildcard game.

They’ve held on to most of the free agents in the off-season and have supplemented the team a little across the board. This is a likeable team, and I want them to do well. If they can protect him, they have one of the league’s elite QBs and the 2nd ranked defense in the league. They should compete in a tight division. That they close out the season with successive games at Lambeau Field could well work in their favour.

Detroit Lions

The Lions were better last year than the 2008 variety, that’s not a surprise and would have been impossible. For a lot of games, they played well and though they were comprehensively beaten a number of times there were a lot of games where they were hanging in there or controller large portions of play. We all remember the win against the Redskins (*sigh*) that snapped a 19 game losing streak as well as the last second win against the Browns where Matthew Stafford completed an amazing passage of play that saw him sacked hard before coming back to complete a pass to rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew – setting up a PAT to take the game.

There has been a lot of free agency movement in both directions from the Lions and there are a lot of notable moves that improve the team (like Duante Culpepper out, Kyle Vanden Bosch in). They also took Ndamukong Suh with the second overall pick to up their defensive line even more. For a team that was ranked last in yards allowed – this is obviously an area that needed attention. Jahvid Best was also taken in the first round, and immediately improves the running game.

Head Coach Jim Schwartz goes into his second year in charger, and the large number of changes he made should bed in. But this remains a really tough division and it’s hard to see them making a real mark.

Chicago Bears

Jay Cutler was supposed to be the missing piece in a team that had flattered in recent seasons. Coming into a team with a sound defensive reputation, he was the man who was going to turn the offence into a unit capable of winning games. But it wasn’t to turn out that way. There were steps forward by key players – Devon Hester emerged as a valid starting receiver and Ryan Grant had another good year as did Greg Olsen, but overall it was a disappointing season.

Defensively, Brian Urlacher was lost for the season after the first game – he was placed on injured reserved after dislocating his wrist. He’d be missed, but Hunter Hillenmeyer was a great stand-in. Lance Briggs had another good year and was voted to the Pro-Bowl. Reputation aside, the defense was a mid-table unit in terms of stats but did improve from the previous year. But for the Bears, the season was over when they lost four games in a run in November. With Jay Cutler having a career high five interceptions in the loss to the 49ers.

They have a tough run in this season, facing the Patriots, Vikings, Jets and Packers in the final four weeks. There will be some crunch games there as long as the team is still in the playoff hunt. The entire squad needs to step up if that’s to be the case as right now I see the division as being a close two-horse race between the Vikes and the Pack.

Predictions (made 2nd June 2010)

Image Credit: topher208, with thanks.

Ah yes, the NFL Fantasy League draft…

Last year I stormed off to a 12-1 regular season before losing both the semi-final and 3rd place playoff. I usually make the playoffs, but with 4th last year and 6th the year before, my solitary victory back in 2006 is looking a little lonely. This year though…

Our league has got very popular over the last few years and this year had the maximum allowed of 20 players. Yes, this was going to be hard.

I got the 6th pick, which I was pretty happy with. Nut the nature of the draft means that my next pick would be the 34th overall. Then 46th, then 74th, add 11, add 29, etc.

The Draft
DeAngelo Williams was going to me my first pick, but he was taken at number 5. Which threw me a bit, as I wasn’t sold on the next few players below him. So I went for Steve Slaton. As I’ve already mentioned here: I like him as a person and a player and think he’s going to have a good year. I then had to sit, wait and watch while most of the high-value players disappear. Come my second pick, I went for another RB. I was tempted to a quarterback, but reckoned (correctly as it turned out) that they’d still be a good choice come my 3rd round pick. So I picked up Ryan Grant then and reached for Carson Palmer next.

Palmer is a risky pick, but I like his chances this year now he’s healthy and has good receivers to aim at.

I’d decided before the draft started not to worry about WRs, as I had in mind a couple that should still be available deep so I went for a solid TE in Greg Olsen in the 4th round. However, one of the WRs was Hakeem Nicks, and he was taken 1st pick of the 5th round so I lifted my targets (a little) and took Muhsin Muhammad

Deep in the 6th I was surprised to see Willie Parker still available, and though I could have gone elsewhere I picked him up. He’ll be on my bench initially, but could be traded or kept for cover. He seems like a bargain all the way down there!

I took Justin Gage in the 7th to essentially fill out the starters, then started looking at backups and value players: Enter Brady Quinn in the 8th and Darrius Heyward-Bey in the 9th.

Shaun Siusham in the 10th is my worst pick, and I’ve already traded him. I’ve never worried too much about a kicker though, and this year is no exception. I’ll just pick up whoever is available if I need to. The same is true of the DEF/ST and my autopick (my connection dropped) of Cleveland won’t set the world alight but will probably be steady enough for me not to worry about it.

In between those, I took Bo Scaife in the 11th then closed out with Michael Clayton and Joey Galloway in the 13th and 14th rounds respectively.

Summary
Generally I’m happy with my team. I managed to stay on strategy for the most part, and didn’t get drawn in when there were runs at certain positions. My receivers could be stronger, but that was conscious on my part so I can’t complain.

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To start week 1, against SmallSatsuma’s Saints

QB – Carson Palmer
WR – Muhsin Muhammad
WR – Justin Gage (gameday decision against Darrius H-B)
RB – Steve Slaton
TE – Greg Olsen
W/R – Ryan Grant
K – Steven Hauschka (who I traded Siusham for)
DEF/ST – Cleveland

I’m trying to trade Willie Parker for Percy Harvin. If accepted, I’ll probably start Harvin over Gage and Heyward-Bey.

I’m projected a narrow win, but who can tell? What I can say is that the draft was a good laugh, again, with a good amount of chat and jokes and laughter throughout. The League should be much the same, and we always look forward to it.

Get Playing!
We use Yahoo! Sports‘ fantasy league and live draft, but there are plenty available. Like at nfl.com.

UK fans should also look at the nfluk.com fantasy competition, which works in a different way but has some good prizes on offer.

But let’s see how things stand today…

There are still questions about the receivers in Chicago, with Devin Hester being the apparent #1. Earl Bennett may well be one to watch: Although he had a very quiet 2008, the former All-SEC receiver played a year with Jay Cutler at Vanderbilt and enjoyed a very successful season when doing so. If the old chemistry is still there, and if any of the three draft picks at receiver can contribute, then perhaps the questions will go away. Either that, or we’ll being seeing a lot of Tight Ends Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark.

On the D, things are still shaping up with competition at Linebacker and improvement needed from the Ends, but no real news of note.

The Vikings are apparently still dallying with Brett Favre. I’m not alone in being completely sick of his games and general behaviour, but with Tarvaris Jackson battling Sage Rosenfels as the alternative you can understand why the Vikes are interested. Personally I think he’ll stay retired and we’ll get an announcement near the 30th talking about how his love for Green Bay means he can’t become a Viking. I’m going to say that T-Jack will start against the Browns on the 13th of September.

Petersen needs to stop doing this

And we all love Adrian Peterson. We’d love him even more if he can stop fumbling the ball.

I still want Aaron Rodgers to be successful. His debut at Lambeau Field last year was a real boys’ own tale, and he was clearly having a blast. With Greg Jennings evolving as a genuine elite receiver and Driver as dependable as ever, combined with a solid depth of receivers he should be up for another good year. Ryan Grant (or “**** You! Ryan Grant! as he became known in our fantasy league last season) was a tad erratic last year, and overall not as successful as he would have hoped. He wasn’t bad by any means, but needs to be more consistent this year and to be adequately spelled too.
The Pack are moving to a 3-4 defense this year, and the line looks great. BJ Raji will be used as an End and the 9th pick is in scary physical shape. If he can make the adjustment, he could be one to watch. There are a lot of players I enjoy in this unit, and I always enjoy a Packers game.

Where you might have thought Daunte Culpepper was the starting QB at the Lions, Matthew Stafford has had a strong showing so far. To swing things back the other way, Culpepper is fighting fit and in the sort of physical shape that he hasn’t been for years (since he took me to Fantasy League glory back in 2004). It seems obvious that Stafford will be starting at some point this year, but how and when is still up for grabs. This is something I covered in more detail here.

Northcutt has come in from the Jaguars, and has supplemented the other picks and free agents to bulk up a receiving core that already has Calvin Johnson to scare safeties. I’m also looking to see if Jon Jansen can make the starting offensive line. Elsewhere, Larry Foote and Julian Petersen should really shake up the Linebackers.

Overall there are a lot of positives here.

Summary
I said before that this is a tough division to call, and so it remains. I’m bumping the Lions over the Vikings for now based on the uncertainty going on there at the moment. I’m also going to bump Chicago down and place Green Bay at the top of the pile.

For now.

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