It’s a long time since training camps last year, when many (but by no means all!) of the teams though they could go all the way.

Back in August, we took a look at how we thought the divisions might play out. And… well, we were pretty much wrong across the board. In fact in some divisions we got the predictions exactly the opposite way to how it turned out. What can we say? It’s been that sort of season.

Super Bowl Rings

We’ve had some good turnaround stories this season, like the Rams and the Bucs who were both pushing for post-season places going into the final weeks. We’ve had the pre-season optimism of teams like the Redskins and Cowboys be beaten away by the realities of the season. We’ve had coaches fired, replaced, out of contract and just not as good as they should have been. We’ve had players go through bitterly disappointing seasons or moments and we’ve had the same number of triumphs. We had a good game between two not-so-good teams at Wembley.

All teams have overcome adversity and injuries during the long and gruelling season but two teams are left. The Green Bay Packers from the NFC and the Pittsburgh Steelers from the AFC.

The Packers are one of those teams who looked like they were struggling, but have hung in there throughout the season and with a great win in week 16 (against the rival Bears!) booked themselves into the play-offs at the last possible moment.

Rodgers Scrambles

They had big injuries, like losing Ryan Grant for the season in week 1, successive losses in overtime to the lightweight Redskins and Dolphins. Rodgers was concussed and at times they didn’t like championship worthy. But they’ve be playing great football for a while now and their last few games have certainly been championship ball.

The Steelers, as we all know, started the season without their starting quarterback. They traded away a Super Bowl MVP and it looked like the defence was losing a step. For most of the season they were neck and neck with the Ravens but were able to book a first-round bye with their strong showing as the season drew to an end.

Both coaches, Mike McCarthy and Mike Tomlin have both done incredibly jobs this year.

In the past few weeks we’ve looked at both teams in some depth, so we’re not going to do that again. Instead, let’s take a look at each element of the game and see how has the edge. No, it’s not a novel approach. But it works.

Passing Offence

The Packers have, in Aaron Rodgers, one of the finest quarterbacks in the NFL at the moment. His game in the divisional round against the Falcons was simply amazing and whilst he couldn’t produce the same against the Bears (in the last two games against them at least) there is always the danger that he can. With Greg Jennings and Donald Driver leading, they have a receiving corp that with a fine balance of explosiveness and experience and adding in a young and strong tight end and you get the feeling that if there’s a play there, this team will find it.

Ward blocks for Mendenhall

The Steelers are known more as a running team but their aerial game cannot be ruled out. Ben Roethlisberger has proven consistently difficult to bring down, he can extend a play and has an arm too. Mike Wallace is a legitimate deep threat and Hines Ward is as tough as they come. Tight end Heath Miller is also a threat.

There is not much to chose between these two teams, so it comes down to Rodgers v Roethlisberger. I have to give Rodgers the edge for big plays, but Roethlisberger the edge for “making it happen”.

Advantage: Packers, by a very slender margin.

Rushing Offence

As mentioned above when you think of the Steelers, you see them running it; pounding it up the middle and gaining serious yards. It’s their history and a large part of their identity and although they can move it in the air, they like to run it. With Rashad Mendenhall leading, they’ve a solid game and an offensive line that loves to go forward.

The Packers are not so rich out of the backfield. When Grant went down it took a while for them to adjust and have any sort of faith in the ground game. Brandon Jackson and James Stark will handle things here, and although the line is strong they’re not as practised, experienced or as confident on the ground as the Steelers are.

Advantage: Steelers.

Pass Defence

During the regular season the Packers were a top 5 unit against the pass. At times, they’ve looked a lot better than that, but so far in the post-season they’ve given up a lot of big plays. Yet they’ve also increased their interception average.

Steelers Defense

Their secondary is as good as it gets, and as long as they don’t get too aggressive. Tramon Williams has been having a great time, strongly aided by Charles Woodson on the other side of the pitch but I also like Sam Shields and the safeties. Like I said: as good as it gets.

The Steelers have got good stats in their last two games, but these have been against the Ravens and Jets. Both could be called “run-first” teams, but it’s certainly true of the Jets. Whilst both of those teams feature good receivers, with respect to Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez… they’re not Aaron Rodgers. Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden in particular will need to play an intelligent game. If there is one upside for the Steelers here, their defensive ends are superb and we should expect to see Lamarr Woodley and James Harrison getting pressure on Rodgers.

Advantage: Packers.

Run Defence

By some margin the Steelers are the best here. Not just against the Packers, but against the entire league. When you factor in the Packers’ running game, you have to imagine that Aaron Rodgers will be called on. A lot.

The Packers are… credible. Mid-table. Average. This is a really important aspect of the play for the Packers. They need to be as strong as they can be against the run to try and make the Steelers put the ball in the air, which would favour Green Bay.

Advantage: Steelers

Special Teams

There’s not much to swing either way here. The smooth field and controlled atmosphere of Cowboys Stadium will seem vastly different to the notoriously difficult pitches of Lambeau and Heinz Field. We might see a punt hit the screen though… I wonder what the odds are on that?

No overall advantage.

Steelers' Sideline

Intangibles

By their very definition it’s hard to define what we mean here. I guess this is a catch-all for ‘everything else’. In experience I have to give the edge to the Steelers here. They are regular Super Bowl attendees and will probably have a smoother time of preparation because of their experience here. They’re also the slight underdogs. Every team likes being the underdogs in a game that should essentially be pretty close.

Advantage: Steelers

Coaching

As I mentioned above, both coaches have done a great job this year in dealing with issues both on and off the field. Mike Tomlin is in only his 4th year as a coach  and aged just 38 is at his second Super Bowl. That’s an impressive record. At 47 and in his 5th year, this is Mike McCarthy’s first Super Bowl, but this season he’s had to do deal with more problems on the field. We’ve covered the injuries earlier in this post, and McCarthy has found a way to work with what he’s got and move forward. Tomlin has also had challenges and in both cases the coaches have made it work.

Tomlin has been in more of the big games, so he has an edge in experience here and I also think that I’d give the edge to the Steelers for the strength of the rest of the coaching team. But as with so many of these categories, it’s a close one.

Advantage: Steelers

Predictions

As much as I like the Packers, and want them to win, I think that the Steelers have a narrow edge on the field and a bigger edge off it in terms of experience and intangibles. I’m picking Pittsburgh to win their 7th Super Bowl.

Craig Says:

Brandon Jackson

Here it is, the match everyone is looking forward to and the match every team wanted to play in. The Superbowl baby! Excitement is high and everyone is buzzing for sundays game which sees the AFC Pittsburgh Steelers against the NFC Green Bay Packers. Both teams have played some great football to get here, no doubt. The Steelers got passed the Ravens and the Jets after a bye week for winning their division, and the Packers beat the Eagles, the Falcons and the Bears, all away.

I think we’re in for a good game. Both offences and defences are amongst the best in the league, and it really could come down to turnovers as to who comes out victorious. Aaron Rodgers (QB) v Troy Polamalu (S), Matthews (OLB) v the Steelers O-line, Greg Jennings (WR) v Ike Taylor (CB), Mike Wallace (WR) v Charles Woodson (CB), Mike Tomlin (Coach) v Mike McCarthy (Coach).. the game is full of battles which will be interesting to keep an eye on. Any one of these could be the tide turner, but I’ve gotta give the edge to the Packers for this.

Plus, you know, the Steelers suck and stuff.

Graham Says:

The bookies have Green Bay as the favourites (£1.5m matched on Betfair as of Thursday morning) but it is not by a wide margin.

Personally I think the Steelers will find a way to win this. There is so much experience there and that can count for a lot at this level of the game. Most of all I am looking forward to watching a great game in what should be a close and exciting Super Bowl. Break out the beer and jerky!

Steelers to win.

Image Credits:
Ward blocking for Mendenhall: tomcoolinmiami
Super Bowl Rings – John Tornow
Brandon Jackson – Elvis Kennedy
Steelers Sideline – Elizabeth Kuhns
Rodgers Scrambles – Neil Staeck
Steelers Defense – Alex Abboud

Has anything changed?


Ben Roethlisberger has a civil suit hanging over his head, though by most reports he’s not let it affect him and has shown considerable poise in being the leader of the team.

Hines Ward is sitting out practice. Not, you might think, to save injuries to any defensive backs, but because he’s earned it and can be trusted to be in shape come the pre-season. With Santonio Holmes hoping to reproduce his post-season form in the pre-season, it falls to those two to lead the receivers with Nate Washington plying his trade in Tenessee now.

Along with Washington, Bryant McFadden and Larry Foote are also playing in new cities (Arizona and Detroit) which is going to need to see some adjustment on the defense. On the brightside, they still have Mactalksnfl favourite Troy Polamalu tearing up the backfield.

As with any defending champions, they start the season with nothing to prove yet everything to lose. After their last championship, they went a disappointing 8-8 but will surely have learnt lessons from that.

Baltimore Ravens' QB Joe Flacco lets one go

Joe Flacco will go into his sophomore season entrenched as starter and will look to build on his fantastic first season that took the Ravens deep into the post-season. With a little bit more protection, he can do great things as long as he keeps his form up. Something that is by no means certain for a second-year QB.

The Ravens second place finish last year means that they have potentially tricky matchups against the Colts and Patriots on their schedule this year (The Steelers have the Dolphins and Titans) those will be all games to watch to see how they’ll affect the division table here.

I was initially tough on the Bengals’ receivers, then I changed my tune and it’s one of the main things I’m looking out for from training camp. If healthy and productive, they could be a real threat as long as the running game backs them up.

If Andre Smith and the team can sort a contract out, he could be an immediate starter at tackle. The longer a deal isn’t in place is going to affect his gametime early in the season.

There have been a number of changes on the defense, but nothing that shouldn’t be able to be catered for. That said, I don’t like the look of this unit – they were weak in 2008 and could easily be weak again.

A big factor when considering their finishing spot is that the Bengals have four of their last five games on the road. This will be a tough run and if they’re still in contention at that stage it will be an important sequence of games. I feel they’ve improved since my First Look – certainly on offense – but am leaving them projected at third spot for now.

The rebuilding is well under way in Cleveland, with ex-Jet’s coach Eric Mangini making his mark. He’s also delved deeply into the roster from his old club in an attempt to improve the team across the board.

The big story here is Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn in the quarterback battle. You’d hope that it would be settled as soon as possible, but with both guys putting up similar numbers last season I wouldn’t be surprised to see them sharing time through the early part of the pre-season. My money is on Quinn at this point.

With so much happening with the team, they’re tough to get behind as contenders.

Summary
Like I said before, the crunch match is in week 16 when the Ravens travel to Pittsburgh in a match that will probably decide the division (assuming that one of them has not fallen apart by then).

I do like what’s coming out of Cincinnati, but not enough to bump them at this point. So it’s no change so far.

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