When Tramon Williams jogged casually out of the end zone, looking for someone to celebrate his game winning interception last week against the Eagles, he didn’t know the play was still going. When he finally went to the ground (and was covered immediately by team-mates) to end the play he’d put Michael Vick and the Eagles out of the play-offs. The Pack’s reward is another rematch, in the shape of a trip to take on the Atlanta Falcons for a place in the Conference Championship.

Matt Ryan Drops Back

Ranked #1 and having looked good right across the season, the Falcons were the class of the NFC. Going 7-1 at home and 6-2 on the road, they set the bar high for everyone else to follow. And yet when you look purely at the stat tables, you wonder how they did it. They rank 16th in both offence and defence. When you look at the wins, you see that at home they were in close games but away they frequently blew out their opponents. They did have a favourable schedule, but they made the most of these games.
Matt Ryan has only ever lost two games in the Dome and will fancy his chances again here. With Michael Turner having a great season out of the backfield, the Packers will be kept honest against the run which should open things up for Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White and the rest of the receiving corp. White was held largely in check before by Williams and Charles Woodson.

Georgia Dome, Atlanta

The Falcons have been good all year on special teams and I have to give them the edge there. I prefer the pass defence of the Packers, and I prefer Rodgers to Ryan if it comes to a duel, but the Falcons have a better running game to help their QB with. The Falcons will be rested and as well coached and prepared as they’ve been all year.

When these teams played before, Aaron Rodgers played like a real warrior. He passed for nearly 350 yards, he ran for 50 more and a TD, gutsy 4th down plays… he did everything. With very little running game to call on (26 yards on 10 carries from Brandon Jackson), he did a great job against a defence that was facing a one-dimensional offence. The game nearly went into overtime, but Matt Bryant kicked a 47 yard FG to take the late win.

Here’s the bottom line: This is the sort of game that every football fan looks forward to. Two great teams, with strengths across the field, looking to go out and get a win. When I look at each element of the match-ups across the field I fancy the Packers by a fraction. This is going to be a close game and it’s one that I’m very much looking forward to.

Packers with a narrow win.

Image Credits:
Georgia Dome – Gregor Smith
Ryan Drops Back – Mike

Week 7… nearly half way through the season already! This week I’ll be taking a look at the Cincinnati Bengals at the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are having the better start to the season without doubt. They’re currently sitting on a 4-2 season with a 2-0 home record. The Bengals are currently 2-3 with a 1-2 away record. Judging by these stats alone you would say that the Falcons are looking high favourites for this contest.

Cincinnati’s form up until now has been patchy. They’ve won games they arguably shouldn’t have (coughcough) and lost games they probably shouldn’t have. The Browns and Tampa Bay have both beaten the Bengals in 2 consecutive weeks, and both by 3 points. The defence probably isn’t causing as many turnovers as they would like, and are yet to get a touchdown from one out of 7 interceptions and 5 forced fumble recoveries. They’ve also only got to the quarterback 6 times in 5 games. No doubt Marvin Lewis will be looking to tighten up his secondary and get them performing more like they did last year.

Lewis will also be looking to get his offensive unit working correctly. Carson Palmer has a mass of weapons at his disposal; Chad Ochocinco, Terrell Owens, Cedric Benson, Jermaine Gresham and Jordan Shipley are all reliable targets with the ability to make something happen; unfortunately Carson isn’t hitting them as much as the Bengals supporters would like and many are beginning to question whether he is the right quarterback for the job. He definitely has the potential, but we’ve been saying that for a while. He is averaging over these first 5 games – 257.4 yards, 1.4 touchdowns, 1.2 interceptions on 38.8 attempts and 23 completions per game. That equals to 59.3 % pass completion and a 78.3 passer rating. He has also fumbled 4 times. So unless the defence can tighten up and see out games or Carson Palmer can start playing like people say he can I don’t see the Bengals making a push for the playoffs this year.

The Falcons are in a similar situation. They’ve won games they arguably shouldn’t have and lost games they probably shouldn’t have. They beat New Orleans with the last kick in the game of which they were, in my opinion, lucky to win. They played well at Philadelphia but managed to somehow get destroyed score line wise. Matt Ryan is another Carson Palmer. Sometimes he shows glimpses of that potential that the coaching staff know he has, and then other times he’ll look unsure of himself and rush the play resulting in an incompletion or interception. Still, he is playing better this year and his 85.3 passer rating shows that. His 9 TDs also show that. (Mind, I could probably throw for 9 touchdowns if I had Roddy White on the receiving end).

Michael Turner is powering through defences still, and he’ll be quite a handful for the Bengals defence to keep in check. I’m sure he would like another 1 or 2 touchdowns on his stats though. Defensively the Falcons have twice as many sacks and nearly double the amount of interceptions than Cincinnati have. Plus they have an all important defensive touchdown to their name. It could very well be a difference maker.

Basically it could come down to two things: Which quarterback turns up or which defence turns up. It could even be both and turn into a blow out. This is why I love football. All the stats in the world can be thrown about, but at the end of the day there are too many factors which can alter the game in any one teams favour.

My prediction: Atlanta Falcons win.

Image Credit: Jim Harper

The run that the Saints went on took us by surprise. Indeed, from the pre- and off-season Graham and I both fancied the Panthers to be the err, big dogs of the division. As it happened, they were pussycats and the Saints went marching on and it’s now history. But enough of me murdering metaphors…

This NFC South has been particularly well balanced in recent years, with all four teams making the post season and each team has made the championship game and all but the Falcons made the Super Bowl since 2002. That could make things hard, but could make them fun too!

So let’s take a look…

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ah the Bucs. Our party to Wembley last year for the International Series game were all (except one, Ant!) Bucs for a day but it was hard to cheer them on as they never looked like winning that game. In the end the Pats won at a canter in a pretty one-sided affair. But like with all the teams we’ve had he privilige to see; who’ve made the effort to come to Wembley and put on a display for us, we do feel a certain attachment to them.

Josh Freeman gave the offense a little spark in the second half of the season and we’ll watch his development. Carnell “Cadillac” Williams was back after injury and also did well. Antonio Bryant was released to free agency and has joined the Bengals. The defense has been looked after in the draft, with Gerald McCoy as the 3rd overall pick being the big name here. The Bucs would use 6 of their 9 picks addressing the defense.

But it’s hard to look beyond this team as having anything more than a rebuilding season. I could easily see them doing worse than the 3 wins of 2009. I hope not, but it’s very possible.

New Orleans Saints

As reigning champions, the Saints will have both a natural swagger and a huge target on their backs. Whilst there’s no doubt that this team will put up serious points, they have many frailties on the other side of the ball to rectify if they want to repeat… a task which is a tough ask for any team.

However, expect the confidence to show. To beat this team you have to shut down the offense, and that’s not easy with the weapons they have. But there are still questions here: Can Darren Sharper, coming off knee surgery and 34, be as effective as he was last year. How will Reggie Bush, going into his 5th season, play? He had a poor 2009 and has never been the standout that was expected though he remains a threat catching out of the backfield. Will Drew Brees put up 2008 level numbers again, how will Jeremy Shockey be? Can the defence improve?

This is a team that pretty much everyone is pleased to see doing so well and I hope they can carry that form into 2010. For now, they’re the team to beat in the South.

Atlanta Falcons

It was a strange season for the Falcons. Although the posted a winning record, they only beat one team with a winning record (the Jets in week 15). A result that saw them eliminated from the post-season due to other results. Whenever they faced the ‘better’ teams they seemed wanting. And that’s despite Matt Ryan taking real strides forward in his sophomore season. Michael Turner had a disappointing season after his stand-out showing in 2008. But they remain a team to be wary of. Stats-wise, the offence was steady despite key injuries and the defence improved on 2008 but needs to improve further.

The Falcons play the Panthers in weeks 14 and 17. Those two games will likely be the difference for these teams. What in soccer would be called “six pointers”.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers were the disappointment of the division last season. Sure the Bucs were terrible, but we all expected that. The Panthers were just as bad considering they should have been contenders. As it happens, they lost key games early on and were always on the back foot. Whilst all the blame can’t be put on QB Jake Delhomme, a lot of it can. The experienced QB threw a career-high 18 interceptions on his way to posting the worst rating of his career… a career which will continue in Cleveland.

The Panthers will look to Matt Moore to take them forward, but were also lucky to get Jimmy Clausen as their first pick deep in the second round of the draft. Considered the most pro-ready of this year’s draft class, there’s a story there to watch. The Panthers will also need continued production from DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart who continue to look like the best running tandem in the league.

Defensively the Panthers were a good unit last year, and tweaks rather than mass changes are needed here. But this is a team defined by its offence. If they can click, move (and protect) the ball, then this will be a team to watch out for again.

Predictions (made 7th June 2010)
It’s very close between the Panthers and Falcons for me, but for now I can see the division shaping up the same way it did in 2009.

Thumbnail Credit: Khaijg

Well, there have been a whole load of injuries… here are just some that could have wider impact.

Note that this update does not cover the four games that took place on the 13th August.

Rams’ wideout Donnie Avery is out for up to 6 weeks with a fracture in his foot. He’ll probably miss the games at the Seahawks and the Redskins. As their presumed #1 receiver, that could hurt them in a couple of difficult road games. The Rams beat the ‘Skins last year, largely on the back of thier mid-season coaching change. So I’m pleased to see them weakened even a little.

Steve Smith has a shoulder injury which will keep him out a little while. Bad news for the Panthers, who’ll be hoping it’s not too long. Another injured receiver is Antonio Bryant of the London-bound Bucs. He’s due to miss the whole of the pre-season, but hopes to be ready for week one. If he misses that game against the Eagles, then the week two divisional matchup with the Falcons is a good target.

Speaking of the Falcons… Roddy White is back and training after a short holdout for a new contract. And, oh my, he’s getting paid a fair whack to be Matt Ryan‘s main target. Even missing 8 days, you’d have to think he’ll be up to speed and raring to go.

Tarvaris Jackson is back with the Vikings after an injury forced him to sit out for a few days. That might affect his competition with Sage Rosenfels. I’ve also realised that I’ve been spelling his first name wrong for a while now… I think I’ve got it sorted now though.

Dallas Clark is still suffering with a concussion, so will rest up as needed in the pre-season. Expect to see him raring to go come the regular season. With him out and Marvin Harrison not about the Colts need a receiver to step up to support Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzales.

The Saints are looking to add a veteran linebacker or two: Derrick Brooks and Derek Smith both have work outs this week. Mark Simoneau is heading for surgery, so if one of them gets a spot they could be giving depth that he can’t anymore.

Texans’ rookie linebacker (and announced starter) Brian Cushing is also due to miss some games. Gary Kubiak has shown some skill with protecting rookie players and getting most out of them. We expect the same here.

There have been five pre-season games now, and a whole load more are happening this weekend. We’ll take another look at who’s doing well or got injured once those are out of the way.

The biggest concern the Panthers have this off-season is their cap space. With Peppers signed to a short-term franchsie-value contract, they have no money to spend anywhere else. If they can’t sort him out to something longer term, then they are going to struggle to provide depth where it is needed. The time is running out for a deal (15th July) so watch this space.

This division will surely be settled between these two teams.

The Bucs have released backup Brian Griese to make room for 3rd round pick Roy Miller (DT). Josh Freeman, their first round pick and presumed future QB, is still unsigned. Meaning that Brian Leftwich is the most likely starter, unless Luke McCown can show something during preseason.

The coaches will also be hoping that a happy Kellen Winslow is a productive Kellen Winslow, and there are signs that rookie WR Sammie Stroughter could play a part too… I feel better about the Bucs than I did earlier in the year: A strong performance in-division and they could move into 3rd. I’ll be watching.

The Falcons are looking to expand on their passing game this term – to progress Matt Ryan and to protect Michael Turner – and Tony Gonzales will surely look to play a part in any passing game.

As with last season there’s a fair bit of competition in the backfield, and Brent Grimes in particular, will be looking to get his CB starting place back. The Falcons’ training camp opens soon, and we’ll have to watch what comes out of there, but there’s not much right now to make me change my mind.

The Saints haven’t signed any of their draft picks yet, but typically they wrap that up quick. One pick already impressing is CB Malcolm Jenkins who will look to get some appearances sooner rather than later.

A result of the Panthers‘ lack of cap space has let the Saints pick up long snapper Jason Kyle, who could be a valuable, if under-appreciated, addition to the special teams. Gregg Williams is also mixing up the D, moving players about and generally making his presence felt. He’s been a bit hit and miss over the last few years, but there’s no doubting his credentials. I expect this unit to firm up as he gets the best out of the players he’s got.

Summary
No change… just. The Panthers have fallen a little and the Bucs risen, but not enough to make me update this table yet.
[table id=2 /]

The Indiana Colts didn’t have a bad season last year (their 12-4 record hadn’t been beaten in the division’s history) and although Darren Sproles sunk them in the playoffs, it was a close game that – as ever – came down to a few key plays and was finally decided in OT.
This year sees a number of coaching changes, notably Tony Dungy has stepped down, and there has been word from the camp that all is not well in terms of organisation and message. This is a team to watch this off-season.

The Jags went 2-8 across the last 10 weeks of the season well and truly burying the early season optimism that wins at Denver and Indianapolis had given them. However you cut it, this was a bad year.
The off-season has seen the departure of Fred Taylor (to the Patriots) after 10 years of injury-prone but good service. Maurice Jones-Drew is “the man” this year, a steady progression after seeing his carries increase in each of the last three years.
There’s a lot to find out here yet. The team stats from last season are decidely mid-table on both sides of the ball… they don’t seem to have any urgent needs, but simply need an extra 10% right across the park. That’s a tough ask, and one of the main reasons why I have them propping the table up again.

I wouldn’t say the Titans were a surpise last year, as they had built up nicely from the two previous seasons. The winning streak was a surprise though, and helped them coast into the playoffs. Chris Johnson was a brilliant draft pick, and stormed to nearly 1500 all-purpose yards. Like with Matt Ryan though, a sophomore slump can’t be ruled out.
As things stand at QB, Kerry Collins will start and even today Vince Young is grumbling. Keeping a lid on his discontent might take up more time than he’s worth. Even if he is seen as the future leader of the team (and that’s by no means certain at this point) Collins is a proven leader and winner. He deserves his spot for now.
Draft-wise, it was a case of supplementing the existing team – and their 12 picks were evenly spread across the team. This is a strong unit, and even with a Haynesworth-sized hole in the defence, I can’t look past them for the division.

The Houstons remain the poor relative in this division, with not a single playoff appearance since the team came into the league in 2002. There have been signs of progress though, with two consecutive 8-8 seasons combined with them sending 3 players to the Pro-Bowl lat year and had Steve Slaton unfortunate to miss out too.
I can’t see too much progress being made, and think between 7 and 9 wins this year again and no playoffs again.

So there we are… I think the final positions will be the same as last season, though I could see the Colts in 1st or 3rd as much as 2nd.
[table id=6 /]

The Panthers look strong again. If they can avoid too much drama with Peppers then the D is going to be one to watch with Ron Meeks as the new coordinator. Offensively it’s largely as you were, and they’re a talented bunch. I’d put them up as a serious contender. It’s hard to look beyond them as divisional champions. The Falcons could run them close again, but not close enough.

The Bucs are facing a tough season because of how the schedule plays out. They have a very tough first half of the season, including a “home” game in London. I always like to cheer the nominal home team but I think they’re going to get turned over something terrible by the Pats. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bucs leaving Wembley and heading to their bye with a 2-5 record.

The Falcons were a bit of a surprise package last year. Firstly Michael Turner started to look like a game-winning back and then Matt Ryan was… well, he was impressive. But hands up who’d be surprised at a sophomore slump for last season’s Rookie Of The Year? Their offense hasn’t changed much from last season, but the D has. Last year was a solid “bend but don’t break” unit (24th in yards allowed but 10th in points) and it’ll be interesting to watch how they start the season.

I loved seeing the Saints last year, and there are still 3 ‘Be A Saint’ flags kicking around the house. Brees was on awesome form last year, and it was fantastic to see a QB as good as he was in action. Despite that, they fell short of post-season with a disappointing 8-8. This year, I can possibly see them improving on that… slightly. A Wild Card spot is a possibility, but not a strong one.

[table id=2 /]