Vincent Jackson – I love Vincent Jackson. The guy is a great player and has won me many a fantasy game over the years. He’s usually my first receiver pick in the draft, that’s how much faith I have in him when he plays. Unfortunately this season he has a 3 game suspension. On top of that he has refused to sign his tender as a restricted free agent, and rumours are flying around that because of this we might not see him play even after his suspension finishes. I hope not, because he is talented and a great guy to watch play. If it was up to me I’d be leaving him to the free agency wire and keeping a close eye on how events unfold.

Santonio Holmes – Santonio Holmes, fresh from a move to the New York Jets from the Pittsburgh Steelers, is joining a very, very good team. It’s just a shame he won’t be playing for the first 4 games. Usually you’d see Santonio go in the first 3 rounds of a draft, and rightly so. He is a solid receiver and will get you points. But missing 4 games AND a bye week means 5 total weeks of zero production. If you see him still there in the later rounds then by all means grab him as a bench warmer for half the season, but don’t waste a good pick in getting him early.

Ben Roethlisberger – What can be said about Big Ben that hasn’t already been said? He’s currently on a 6 game suspension though it’s looking likely that it’ll be restricted to 4 games. That’s still a lot of games, the same amount as Santonio. He is a very good QB, and probably one of the best late game QBs around at the moment. He will get points, and he will be consistent in doing so. However, picking Ben in early or mid-rounds is a waste of a perfectly good pick when there will be people available to score you points from the get go. I’d rather take a Kevin Kolb than a Roethlisberger if I had the choice this season.

The second kind of player I’ll be commenting on will be the ones who I just don’t think will produce as well as they have done or as well as people expect. It could be quite a long list, but I’ll shorten it to just five.

Visanthe Shiancoe – An amazing season last year made a lot of people stand up and notice Shiancoe. Some might say it was a ‘break-out’ season for the 30 year old. Nearly 600 yards receiving and 11 touchdowns (bested only by Vernon Davis among the tight ends) is nothing to grumble at. However, you have to credit Brett Favre for his part in his season. The veteran improved the Vikings in all aspects of their game. His knowledge, experience and natural talent made them one hell of an exciting team to watch, and everyone around him seemed to up their game. With the possible pending retirement of Favre I just don’t think Visanthe will be repeating these numbers, so keep a close eye on the Brett Favre saga. We at Mac will be.

Thomas Jones – Jones is an absolute beast. He’s got the size, the power, the speed and the experience. If he was still working with the Jets I’d say grab him quickly. Unfortunately he’s not, he’s at the Chiefs. Let’s face it, that’s just devalued him by a good few rounds. Jamaal Charles is the main man at Kansas City. An astounding season last year will make it difficult the Jones to force his way into the number 1 spot. 1000 yards rushed with an average of 5.9 yards per carry. How can you dislodge that? It’s my opinion that Jones will simply be used as a goal-line threat, and not enough to warrant a valued pick until late in the draft. Think of him as a Tim Hightower this season and not a Frank Gore.

Matt Forte – It’s a shame for Forte, he really does have the skills to be a top running back. He can find gaps, he’s got the agility, but unfortunately he plays for a team with a weak offensive line and a pass happy offensive coordinator. He nearly hit a 1000 yards last year, but only got 4 touchdowns off 258 attempts. His attempts actually decreased last year from the year before by a good 60 or so. I can see the same again this year as Jay Cutler settles himself into his second season. I wouldn’t pick Matt with your first load of picks, but as a 2^nd running back he could be worth a shout.

Sidney Rice – The second Viking in this list (Hmmm, I wonder why), but I have a second reason for Sidney. Yes, as I mentioned with Shiancoe, the pending departure of Favre is definitely a factor. Last year was definitely his break-out year. He hasn’t come close to replicating those numbers before. In fact, I think he doubled all his stats from previous years (receptions, yards and touchdowns). Without Favre, I don’t have faith that he will be a solid fantasy option. Along with the fact that he is still on the PUP list it doesn’t look like he will make the start of the season.

Steve Slaton – Stevie had a great year in 2008/09, and a shocking year in 2009/10. He picked up a nasty little disease that we in the Football world like to call, ‘fumblitis’. The previous Mac Favourite lost his starting place and soon disappeared. Granted, the replacement backs didn’t exactly set the world on fire, so depending on the off-season Slaton might get a shot and getting his #1 place back. Houston did pick Ben Tate in the second round of the 2010 NFL Draft though, so this leaves Arian Foster, Steve Slaton, and Ben Tate all in the running for one spot. I suppose it all depends on how their pre-seasons go. Keep a close eye on the Texans, but I wouldn’t place my running back spot in Slaton’s hands… He might drop it.

So there you have it. A few players to be a little wary of. Hopefully this will be useful for your draft. Next up I’ll be looking at those late round picks who could very well turn out to be decent little point earners for you. Especially useful for those in big drafts.

Image Credits:
Vincent Jackson – Jeffrey Beall
Visanthe Shiancoe – xoque
Steve Slaton – The Brit_2

Two divisions left to go, both in the AFC. The West, but first let’s take a look at the South.  Things didn’t happen in quite the way they were predicted last season. Judging by the number of Colts and Titans shirts we saw at Wembley last year, UK NFL fans would love to see some of these teams in London soon. But they’ll probably just have to hope for serious post-season runs for now…

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts looked so good all through the post-season that it looked like they were heading for another Superbowl. As we know, and despite what we here at MacTalksNFL thought, it wasn’t to be the case.

Going into the second year under Jim Caldwell, there’s no way this team won’t make the post-season. That’s a given, and the front office in Indy shows a lot of the league how things should be done. They’ll need more of that as it comes to getting a new deal in place for Peyton Manning in an uncapped season. What he gets will reverberate across the league, but it’s hard to imagine it becoming a real distraction: A deal will get done.

They ranked only 19th in defense last year. They’ve resigned some core components of this unit – like Melvin Bullitt, Gary Brackett and Antoine Bethea and also spent their first three draft picks to do better on this side of the ball.

Like I said above – they’ll make the playoffs. It’s the easiest call we get to make.

Houston Texans

We all love the Texans and really want them to do well. Last year they got close (again) but they didn’t quite make it (again). The sting of not making the play-offs will have hurt, but this young team did record their first winning season, continuing a steady trend of careful building and development over the last few years.

Finishing second though, has meant their schedule looks trickier than it might have done – not that this team will fear anyone, and the number 1 passing offence in particular will feel then can beat anyone through the air. Despite what coach Kubiak says, they probably don’t want to pass all the time. Steve Slaton was a fumble-machine last season, eventually losing his spot to Ryan Moats (and costing my Fantasy League glory too!). Moats is now with the Vikings, so Slaton will hope to get more chances even if the team is well stocked at running back after getting Ben Tate in the draft. How well they can adjust to new OC Rick Dennison will be the story of the first few games.

They will certainly need to improve in-division too. Their 1-5 record ultimately cost them – as the 7th ranked team in the AFC just one additional win would have got them safely into a wildcard spot. With three of those divisional losses being by 5 points or less, these games were winnable.

The defence was decidedly mid-table, and whilst it can improve it’s probably more important that they don’t regress. Like I mentioned above, this is a likeable young team with some real studs… but with a harder schedule, I don’t see them getting to 9-7 again.

Tennessee Titans

Talk about a season of two halves. The Titans opened up 2009 with six consecutive losses, putting them well and truly on the back foot. Coming back after their bye week, Vince Young started and the team started to follow him. The remaining 10 games saw only two losses to end the season a respectable (considering) 8-8.

Chris Johnson was a hero out of the backfield, becoming only the 6th player to run for 2000 yards in a season and also breaking Marshall Faulk‘s yards from scrimmage record. Now he wants to be paid, and based on his form of the past two seasons it’s easy to see his case. Hopefully it’ll come together with him and the Titans before any hold out affects his play this year.

Knowing it was an area that needed help, the Titans spent 6 of their 9 draft picks on that side of the ball, including on Myron Rolle, who gives NFL UK fans a sort of home player to support.

This is a team that has played well in fits and starts over the last two years, and will be confident of being a real contender this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars

It’s been a difficult time for the Jaguars since they went 11-5 in 2007. A terrible 2008 looked like it might be put to bed until they finished 2009 with 4 consecutive losses for a final record of 7-9. Worse is that apart from hanging with the Dolphins, they were never really in any of those games. They also had television blackouts for 7 of their home games as various factors affected attendance and you wonder how that affects the players.

This is a team that wasn’t outright bad anywhere on the field, but need small improvements everywhere – something that can often be difficult to put right. However, Coach Del Rio obviously believes in the offence, and they’ve been left largely alone so far this off-season as he’s concentrated on strengthening the defence. Aaron Kampman comes in from Green Bay, and with the 10th overall pick the Jags took Tyson Alualu for two immediate upgrades to the D-Line. They also drafted another tackle, end and linebacker as well as trading for Kirk Morrison in Oakland, who has been a tackle machine in his last two seasons. There will definitely be an improvement with the front seven.

But this team will need luck as well as skill and talent. As with the Texans, I can’t see them getting to 9 wins but think that like last season they’ll hang in the division and can’t be ruled out if a couple of borderline games go their way.

Predictions (made 12th July 2010)

Image Credit: Kagilbert45

Anyway, we both called this one correctly.

Sunday, 13th September
Jacksonville @ Indiana, 12-14
Well, we thought that this would be a close game and so it proved! Jones-Drew looked good as the focal point of the Jags attack, and the Colts did enough but will need to show us more if we’re going to believe in them this year.

Detroit @ New Orleans, 27-45
Drew Brees put on another passing clinic, completing 6 TD passes to 5 receivers. Matt Stafford wasn’t quite as impressive, but did get the Lions moving when the running game was shut down. On the plus side, the Lions did put up 27 points which is more than in any game last year. There were signs, but there’s still work to do.

Philadelphia @ Carolina, 38-10
Well damn… I have Carolina as a long-term pick for the Superbowl (article coming soon) and a lock for the NFC South. The Eagles just owned them though, in what ended up being a very one sided affair.

Dallas @ Tampa Bay, 34-21
Dallas are off and running and Tampa Bay could be better than people thought: those are the headlines from this game. Whether the Cowboys can still perform when the pressure is on, and if the Buccaneers can develop further are the stories to watch.

New York Jets @ Houston, 24-7
Another one that we called wrong. The Jets came to play and really turned it on. Mark Sanchez had a great debut and Steve Slaton couldn’t get going on the ground. They have some tough games on their schedule, but have made a strong start.

Kansas City @ Baltimore, 24-38
With over 500 yards (just) of total offense, it was easy to forget this was the Ravens who usually have the defense to rely on. They dominated time of possession, controlled the clock and kept the ball moving. The final score is flattering though, and the Chiefs can take a lot of positives from the performance, including an apparent return to form of Cadillac Williams.

Denver @ Cincinatti, 12-7
With not long at all to go, I was patting myself on the head. Then came that 87 yard score, one of the flukiest catches I’ve seen. Whilst I’m pleased for Stokley, I was gutted for the Bengals who gave a dogged performance all around to stay in the game and take a late lead.

Minnesota @ Cleveland, 34-20
Favre did enough here, mainly handing off to Adrian Peterson who ran wild. The Vikings got Percy Harvin involved too, who looks like an exciting rookie to watch.
Quinn was steady in his NFL debut and spread the ball about well. The Browns were well and truly in this game in the first half, but trailed off disappointingly.

Miami @ Atlanta, 7-19
One word can sum up the Dolphins’ performance: ouch. The Falcons owned them all over the place, and the Dolphins didn’t help themselves with a number of mistakes. The highlight for them was probably Greg Camarillo‘s catch with his legs.

The Falcons looked good all across the board. They’re a team I’ve not picked for the post-season and if they keep playing like this, I’ll be eating humble pie come January.

Washington @ New York Giants, 17-23
The Giants defensive line wreaked havoc with the ‘Skins, and though Washington didn’t play badly they were always behind and playing catchup here. The Giants offense did enough in the air to help their formidable running game, though have lost first round rookie Hakeem Nicks with a ankle injury.

San Francisco @ Arizona, 20-16
Post-Superbowl hangover? At this point, who knows. It is, however, going to be difficult for the Cardinals to repeat last year’s success. As the reigning NFC champions, they’re wearing a target; they can be planned for, strategies made to keep the receivers in check and Kurt Warner on the back foot and the defence can be beaten.
The 49ers played a good game here.

St. Louis @ Seattle, 0-28
A sequence of plays just before half-time summed up the Rams perfectly. They block a field goal attempt, and then return it for a touchdown. Oh wait, no they don’t: 12 men on the field penalty against them. Worse, the 5 yard penalty gives the Seahawks a first down. Worse still, Matt Hasselbeck passes to Nate Burleson for a TD to complete a miserable passage of play.

Chicago @ Green Bay, 15-21
So Bears fans… how’s that quarterback upgrade working out?

When Cutler was good, he was great last night: precise passes and making it happen. However, he can count himself lucky that they were even in the game after his 3 interceptions in the first half. Neither team looked spectacular, but both looked good in spells here.

Worse news for Chicago is that Brian Urlacher is out for the season after having surgery on his wrist. How the Bears can play without him is something to watch in the next few weeks.

Monday, 14th September
Buffalo @ New England, 24-25
Coming from behind to sneak a win wasn’t in the script, but was as good a way as any for the Patriots to start the season, announcing: Come and play, we’ll still beat you. With just over two minutes to play and needing two scores, that’s what they got.

Other than a fumble that handed the ball back to the Pats between those two scores, the Bills did little wrong and looked strong again. They started well last season before tailing off. With the Bills playing this well, and the Jets winning, the AFC East is shaping up to be hotly contested this season.

San Diego @ Oakland, 24-20
We all pick on the Raiders, but this was a good showing from them. Like with the Patriots-Bills game, this took a late scoring drive from the favourites to secure the win: Darren Sproles rushing in with just 18 seconds left.

JaMarcus Russell had a quarterback rating of just 47.6, but kept the ball moving and other than the breakdown on the final drive, they played well. This loss will hurt.

Summary
So a very impressive 13 of 16 for Graham, and a less impressive 11 for Andrew and Chloe.

[table id = 10/]

Ah yes, the NFL Fantasy League draft…

Last year I stormed off to a 12-1 regular season before losing both the semi-final and 3rd place playoff. I usually make the playoffs, but with 4th last year and 6th the year before, my solitary victory back in 2006 is looking a little lonely. This year though…

Our league has got very popular over the last few years and this year had the maximum allowed of 20 players. Yes, this was going to be hard.

I got the 6th pick, which I was pretty happy with. Nut the nature of the draft means that my next pick would be the 34th overall. Then 46th, then 74th, add 11, add 29, etc.

The Draft
DeAngelo Williams was going to me my first pick, but he was taken at number 5. Which threw me a bit, as I wasn’t sold on the next few players below him. So I went for Steve Slaton. As I’ve already mentioned here: I like him as a person and a player and think he’s going to have a good year. I then had to sit, wait and watch while most of the high-value players disappear. Come my second pick, I went for another RB. I was tempted to a quarterback, but reckoned (correctly as it turned out) that they’d still be a good choice come my 3rd round pick. So I picked up Ryan Grant then and reached for Carson Palmer next.

Palmer is a risky pick, but I like his chances this year now he’s healthy and has good receivers to aim at.

I’d decided before the draft started not to worry about WRs, as I had in mind a couple that should still be available deep so I went for a solid TE in Greg Olsen in the 4th round. However, one of the WRs was Hakeem Nicks, and he was taken 1st pick of the 5th round so I lifted my targets (a little) and took Muhsin Muhammad

Deep in the 6th I was surprised to see Willie Parker still available, and though I could have gone elsewhere I picked him up. He’ll be on my bench initially, but could be traded or kept for cover. He seems like a bargain all the way down there!

I took Justin Gage in the 7th to essentially fill out the starters, then started looking at backups and value players: Enter Brady Quinn in the 8th and Darrius Heyward-Bey in the 9th.

Shaun Siusham in the 10th is my worst pick, and I’ve already traded him. I’ve never worried too much about a kicker though, and this year is no exception. I’ll just pick up whoever is available if I need to. The same is true of the DEF/ST and my autopick (my connection dropped) of Cleveland won’t set the world alight but will probably be steady enough for me not to worry about it.

In between those, I took Bo Scaife in the 11th then closed out with Michael Clayton and Joey Galloway in the 13th and 14th rounds respectively.

Summary
Generally I’m happy with my team. I managed to stay on strategy for the most part, and didn’t get drawn in when there were runs at certain positions. My receivers could be stronger, but that was conscious on my part so I can’t complain.

[table id=15 /]

To start week 1, against SmallSatsuma’s Saints

QB – Carson Palmer
WR – Muhsin Muhammad
WR – Justin Gage (gameday decision against Darrius H-B)
RB – Steve Slaton
TE – Greg Olsen
W/R – Ryan Grant
K – Steven Hauschka (who I traded Siusham for)
DEF/ST – Cleveland

I’m trying to trade Willie Parker for Percy Harvin. If accepted, I’ll probably start Harvin over Gage and Heyward-Bey.

I’m projected a narrow win, but who can tell? What I can say is that the draft was a good laugh, again, with a good amount of chat and jokes and laughter throughout. The League should be much the same, and we always look forward to it.

Get Playing!
We use Yahoo! Sports‘ fantasy league and live draft, but there are plenty available. Like at nfl.com.

UK fans should also look at the nfluk.com fantasy competition, which works in a different way but has some good prizes on offer.

We can’t vouch that these will be the best players in absolute terms, have the biggest fantasy football upside or even be any good (though they might be)… but they’re players that we like to watch.

First up is Steve Slaton of the Houston Texans.

Steve Slaton pretty much broke every record whilst at West Virginia, and made the decision to enter the NFL draft early – missing his senior year at college to do so. He then fell deep in the third round of the 2008 draft before being signed up by the Texans.

Steve Slaton cuts against the Lions.

By any standards this was a great year. He ended the season with over 1,200 rushing yards – 6th best in the NFL and the best rookie – and over 1,500 yards from scrimmage. He can consider himself very unlucky not to have been at the Pro Bowl.

But the main thing that stands out for him is how he comes across in interviews. This is a grounded young man: he’s thoughtful and respectful and knows what to say. I don’t use “young man” carelessly either. He won’t be 24 until the post-season of 2009, and is probably hoping to be involved in the post-season, rather than at home resting with his family.

Going into 2009 there is some expectation now. He’s bulked up a few pound to improve areas of his game and the team will look to use him across the board to open up the offense. Last season, he improved as the season went on and there’s no reason he can’t continue that into 2009.

So I wish him all the best for this coming season. I’ve said elsewhere that the Texans are a team that you really want to do well, and I’m hoping Steve Slaton is a part of that.

I’ve not made many adjustments to my predictions elsewhere so far. Let’s see if there’s any changes here.

There had been mumblings and grumblings earlier in the off-season coming from key players related to the coaching changes and everything that entails. Now though, it all seems well. Peyton Manning has commented on some changes, but in either a positive or pragmatic way. This is still a team to watch for now, though we all expect them to be there or thereabouts come the end of the season.

Marvin Harrison has gone, so Manning will be looking at Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzales to produce. Last week I rewatched the Chargers V Colts wildcard and Gonzales had a great game. If he can play like that even half the time then he’ll do well.

On the other side of the ball, the line looks great and we can expect them to play havoc. In fact all across the defense, it’s a good unit.

I’m not seeing much I like with the Jaguars. At Quarterback it’s David Garrard and/or bust – he needs to play well and stay healthy or we can all see 5-11 happening again. Even assuming he is healthy and productive, the receiving core could be as weak as any other in the league. Of course, it could be one of the best, but with so many rookies coming in they’re an unknown quantity.

Maurice Jones-Drew... short, not small.

Maurice Jones-Drew is a class act at running back, and he’ll be backed up – I suspect – by a strong showing from Rashad Jennings.

Defensively there was not a great showing last year. Not awful in terms of points allowed, but not doing enough across the board. There haven’t been huge changes in personnel, so they’ll be looking at new coordinator Mel Tucker to makes changes and get the best out of who they’ve got.

I still like the Titans for the division. Kerry Collins can lead the offense, and is backed up by a grumbling Vince Young. Chris Johnson is not lacking in confidence and LenDale has shed some weight so will be spelling CJ when he needs.
Nate Washington comes into the receivers and is an instant starter. He was a good option and deep threat in Pittsburgh, and is an upgrade to this team.

Of course they will miss Haynesworth in defense, but there is enough depth to be a productive unit without him stuffing the middle of the line (something I hope he’ll reproduce in Washington!) and they’re solid in the secondary though like with so many teams there are questions about the depth at several positions.

The Texans are the sort of plucky underdog that you can’t help but root for. But looking a little closer they have some great players that can really make a difference: Steve Slaton had a great season in 2008 and will be looking to build on that. Matt Schaub, when healthy, can be trusted to produce and Andre Johnson was a stud at WR and is always a threat (and a good Fantasy Football option too).

I like a lot of the defense, and it’s remained largely static – a couple of battles to watch during camp.

Last year, the Texans twice put up 27 points against the Colts and were particularly unlucky in week 5 when the Colts came back from 17 points down in the last quarter. In fact, being only 2-4 in division hurt their final standings despite what could be considered a relatively good season for the new kids. If they can start stronger than last year (0-4, including 3 losses in-division) then we might have to take notice.

I think I was a bit harsh on them in my First Look, though I did suggest they could pip the Colts to second. I’m going to stand by that for now.

Summary
I’m leaving this one the same for now. Come pre-season, when we get to see Manning and what the Colts are up to and I might reconsider the first two places. For now though, I’ll take consistency over change.

[table id=6 /]

The Indiana Colts didn’t have a bad season last year (their 12-4 record hadn’t been beaten in the division’s history) and although Darren Sproles sunk them in the playoffs, it was a close game that – as ever – came down to a few key plays and was finally decided in OT.
This year sees a number of coaching changes, notably Tony Dungy has stepped down, and there has been word from the camp that all is not well in terms of organisation and message. This is a team to watch this off-season.

The Jags went 2-8 across the last 10 weeks of the season well and truly burying the early season optimism that wins at Denver and Indianapolis had given them. However you cut it, this was a bad year.
The off-season has seen the departure of Fred Taylor (to the Patriots) after 10 years of injury-prone but good service. Maurice Jones-Drew is “the man” this year, a steady progression after seeing his carries increase in each of the last three years.
There’s a lot to find out here yet. The team stats from last season are decidely mid-table on both sides of the ball… they don’t seem to have any urgent needs, but simply need an extra 10% right across the park. That’s a tough ask, and one of the main reasons why I have them propping the table up again.

I wouldn’t say the Titans were a surpise last year, as they had built up nicely from the two previous seasons. The winning streak was a surprise though, and helped them coast into the playoffs. Chris Johnson was a brilliant draft pick, and stormed to nearly 1500 all-purpose yards. Like with Matt Ryan though, a sophomore slump can’t be ruled out.
As things stand at QB, Kerry Collins will start and even today Vince Young is grumbling. Keeping a lid on his discontent might take up more time than he’s worth. Even if he is seen as the future leader of the team (and that’s by no means certain at this point) Collins is a proven leader and winner. He deserves his spot for now.
Draft-wise, it was a case of supplementing the existing team – and their 12 picks were evenly spread across the team. This is a strong unit, and even with a Haynesworth-sized hole in the defence, I can’t look past them for the division.

The Houstons remain the poor relative in this division, with not a single playoff appearance since the team came into the league in 2002. There have been signs of progress though, with two consecutive 8-8 seasons combined with them sending 3 players to the Pro-Bowl lat year and had Steve Slaton unfortunate to miss out too.
I can’t see too much progress being made, and think between 7 and 9 wins this year again and no playoffs again.

So there we are… I think the final positions will be the same as last season, though I could see the Colts in 1st or 3rd as much as 2nd.
[table id=6 /]